As against the government’s export target of $200 billion for this fiscal, the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) on Monday projected that shipments from India will go up to $ 230 billions.
In the 2009-10 financial year, the country’s merchandise exports had come under pressure because of the slowdown in the Western markets and dropped to $ 175 billion from $ 189 billion in 2008-09.
“The sharp improvements in merchandise exports in the months of November-December 2010 as well as that assessed in January 2011 of about 32 per cent, have begun to cast a more favourable light on the current account (balance),” PMEAC said in its latest review of the economy.
It said that during the first nine months of the current fiscal, merchandise exports have grown by 29.5 per cent to about $ 184.6 billion over the year-ago period.
“The value of merchandise exports appears to have stabilised at around $ 17-18 billion per month...,” it said.
While there was some easing of shipments beginning July 2010, there was a turn around from November onwards when export growth began to pick up.
Exports in November grew by 26.5 per cent, in December 36.4 per cent and in January 32.5 per cent.
The sectors that are showing good results include gems and jewellery, engineering and petroleum and oil lubricants.
The Commerce and Industry Minister had fixed an export target of $ 200 billion for the current fiscal.
Not only has growth of merchandise exports recovered well, import growth has also begun to moderate, the PMEAC said.
“Undoubtedly the higher world prices for crude oil may have an impact on the import side, but this will, be offset to an extent by the increased availability of domestic crude from the Rajasthan oil fields,” it said.
As per the PMEAC, the merchandise trade deficit is projected to be $ 132 billion, or 7.7 per cent of GDP in 2010-11.
