On August 4, 2010, the Kashmir valley was on the brink of a big explosion of protests, and anything was possible. For months after the Machhil ‘encounter’ of April 2010, when the army was accused of killing three young locals as ‘Pakistani infiltrators’, Kashmiris had forced a shutdown of all work, with protests everyday, and daily standoffs with security which then left 112 dead.
An alarmed central government rushed 24 companies of CRPF soldiers, and 3 companies of Rapid Action Force anti-riot personnel to patrol the streets. It was at this moment that Hurriyat leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani was released from Chashmashahi prison, where he had been held under the PSA (Public Security Act), and did what leaders in the state and the centre had been unable to -- send out a message of non-violence that actually worked. “This is not our way,” he said to thousands gathered at the funeral of another young man killed in the protests. Geelani was credited with defusing the situation, and it would seem that his word was obeyed in the valley.
Yet just seven months later, when he issued a different call, to boycott Panchayati elections in March 2011, that word didn’t hold its sway. The state recorded an 82 per cent turnout overall, with places like Baramulla in Kashmir showing a higher turnout than many parts of Jammu and Ladakh. Municipal elections in 2013 saw a decent turnout as well, while the May 2014 general election saw 51 per cent voting.
Modi legacy
With Jammu and Kashmir getting ready to vote for assembly elections starting this week, officials hope there will be an improvement over the 2008 elections, when 63 per cent voted. “For Prime Minister Modi too, conducting these elections successfully will be an important part of his legacy. Prime Minister Vajpayee and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ensured free and fair elections in Jammu and Kashmir, and so must he,” explained columnist Ashok Malik at a recent conference in Delhi.
If elections are, for some part, at least, about New Delhi’s prestige, then for the same reason, the Hurriyat leadership tries to keep the turnout, particularly in inner-city areas of Kashmir, low. At a meeting on October 30, they issued a call for a boycott of the state elections, and have also called for a bandh on the first day of polling, November 25. In this election, the recent devastating floods that left thousands homeless and 175 dead will also have some impact in at least five of the 87 seats.
However, compared to every one of the previous state elections since 1987, militancy will have the least impact on turnout in this election. Since 2001, when the number of violent deaths in Jammu and Kashmir peaked at 4,500, the numbers have gradually reduced to 375 in 2009, and were down to 134 in 2014. Figures for education, employment, tourism and growth have consequently improved. As a result, say experts who work in the area, voting in elections are more about people’s aspirations for governance. “To begin with, there was a big disillusionment with militancy,” says Sushobha Barve of the Centre for Dialogue Resolution, “Now the disillusionment is with the deliverability of the azaadi slogan. People no longer think it is a deliverable. So they vote because they want to deal with their day-to-day problems.”
Aspiration for resolution
On the other hand, voting itself cannot be seen as a resolution of the underlying situation, says the editor of Rising Kashmir, Shujaat Bukhari. “We had major protests in 2008, and a relatively free and fair election the same year. Yet protests rocked Kashmir in 2009 and 2010. This means, the aspiration for a resolution remains.”
The truth is, peaceful elections in Jammu and Kashmir are a necessary part of that resolution, but only a part of it. The presence of justice, and a greater push to bring into the mainstream those who have been alienated, must be the next step. While it is inconceivable that Mr. Geelani, who was once a legislator in the JK assembly would ever return to it, efforts to bring others like Mirwaiz Umer Farooq, Yasin Mallik, Bilal Lone, to the point where Sajjad Lone now is, in fighting elections while still pushing for a resolution, must continue. The conviction of army personnel for the Machhil encounter must be seen as an important step in this process of including those alienated to become part of that resolution, as is the government’s renewed push to rehabilitate thousands of Kashmiri Pandits forced out at the barrel of a gun 25 years ago.
Other parts of the proposed ‘4-step’, a formula still accepted by most sections including the Hurriyat such as ‘softening’ the LoC, cross border exchanges, and joint bodies, can be speeded up when dialogue between India and Pakistan resumes. Significantly, these are all elements of proposals by the state parties contesting the elections as well -- from Mufti Mohammad Syed and the PDP’s ‘self-rule’ document, Abdullah’s and the National Conference’s ‘Autonomy report’ to Sajjad Lone’s ‘achievable nationhood’ -- all work within the contours of the Indian constitution.
The conduct of free and fair elections in Jammu and Kashmir, the reduction in violence, growth in employment are all signs that a full resolution of an issue that has held back the region for decades is under active consideration, even if not in clear sight just yet. In that sense a good voter turnout in the elections is as much a rejection of “what hasn’t delivered” as it is about “what can be”, and while it is not an end in itself, is a means to it.
