The only thing that can be said with certainty about the upcoming Assembly elections is that nothing can be said with certainty. Held over the wreckage of the devastating floods that submerged the valley around two months ago, the elections, since their announcement, drowned the flood relief and rehabilitation efforts, and now Jammu and Kashmir is overflowing with political rallies and banners, slogans and political songs and the possibilities that the election results could throw up.
Congress erased
As the pendulum of power in Jammu and Kashmir over the last two decades swung between the two big regional parties, the National Conference and the People’s Democratic Party, the Congress, with a majority of the seats from Jammu region in its kitty, has been playing the usual kingmaker. So, in the triangular contest of the past elections, the possible formations were known, tested and expected.
This time, however, the aggressive entry of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with its Mission 44+ slogan has thrown wide open the political game in the state. The BJP has come up as a major force in the Hindu majority Jammu region and after its victory from Jammu’s two parliamentary constituencies earlier this year; the party is expected to win from Congress’s traditional seats in Jammu.
“The fact that the BJP has got space in Jammu and Kashmir is because of the bad governance and corruption by the NC and the Congress governments. This election is a fight between the PDP and the BJP. While the BJP is dangerously trying to divide the state on regional and sub-regional, communal and sectarian lines, the PDP is fighting to give Jammu and Kashmir one voice and to hold it together,” PDP president and Member of Parliament, Mehbooba Mufti, told The Hindu.
The ruling National Conference, Kashmir’s oldest political party, is believed to be going to these elections at its weakest ever and while many are discounting the party’s chances, it is a telling statistic that both when the NC lost in 2002 and when it won in 2008, it had 28 seats. And even when it is seen as going down, it might still play an important role.
“While the NC still has some sway on several constituencies to be an important candidate in these elections, Congress is the one that has been hit badly as it has been in the rest of the country,” says Gul Mohammad Wani, political commentator and Director, Institute of Kashmir Studies.
Dr. Wani says that the Congress had been the conduit between the Jammu and Kashmir regions of the state and had become important in any government formation.
“But with the BJP’s strength this time, that certainty has also been shaken and even more uncertainty looms over Kashmir’s political landscape,” says Dr. Wani. He also says that this time, independents could be more important than they have been in the last three elections.
Boycott could boomerang
The BJP’s entry has also affected the usual to-boycott-or-not-to-boycott question that looms over elections in Kashmir.
Before the onslaught of the BJP on the state during these elections, the two forces in Jammu and Kashmir were the separatists, who advocated the boycott of the electoral process within the Indian constitution, asking instead for a plebiscite, and the two regional parties, who urged people to vote for development, good governance, and ‘bijli, sadak and paani’. At the same time, the latter positioned themselves as far from New Delhi and their manifestoes centered on Autonomy and Self Rule, political proposals that give more powers to the State and sought more autonomy within the Indian Union, which has been steadily eroded.
The BJP, however, has come with slogans of discussion on and abrogation of Article 370 -- the only provision left that gives the State a special status with regard to the Indian Union -- and a complete integration of the State with India. This new discourse had added another dimension to the politics in the state and has made people feel that a boycott of the elections could lead to the victory of the BJP, a possibility that has jolted the state’s political status quo.
The separatists, however, have again called for a boycott of the elections, saying it is immaterial whether BJP comes to power as the real power is yielded by New Delhi. “There is no difference for us between the Jammu and Kashmir-based parties or the Indian political parties. New Delhi always rules us by proxy and if the BJP comes to power, it will rule us directly and it would be good that things come out in the open instead of having these Kashmiri politicians as a buffer,” Hurriyat leader Mirwaiz Umar said.
