The irony is that seismicity is about the present moment, except that unlike the ticking hour-hand and minute-hand on the clock, it moves unseeing and unseen.
The period 2010-2011 can be termed Earthquake Year. After Fukushima, it can also be termed Nuclear-Quake Year.
Public memory is notoriously short and self-centred. The Haiti quake of January 12 , 2010 that killed over 2,30,000 people and left 1 million homeless seems to us as far back in time as that place itself is, in space. The one that shook Chile on February 27, 2010, triggered a tsunami, killed hundreds, and displaced 1.5 million is now material only for seismological archives.
Even the one that shook Islamabad and its environments the very next day, on February 28, is as far back in our memories as the Chilean, though as close in physical terms as this printed page is to the reader's hands.
And yet these are not part of our active memories. Fukushima may also soon get ‘filed' in that befogged zone.
At what cost?
Natural calamities like earthquakes and tsunami are happening at more frequent intervals than they used to, and are shrinking planetal distances more than before.
I have listed only the 2010 earthquakes that occurred outside India. But earthquakes do not recognise national boundaries, sovereignties and border disputes. If Pakistan was shaken rudely last year and Myanmar this March, India needs to be awake to the prevailing seismicity of our geological bequest. Equally, of what we in our state of seismic and geological indifference have done to ourselves.
What is the seismic scene? Earthquake zoning divides India into four seismic zones (Zone 2, 3, 4 and 5) with Zone 5 held to have the highest level of seismicity and Zone 2 with the lowest level of seismicity. Kashmir, Punjab, the western and central Himalaya, the North-East Indian region and the Rann of Kutch fall in this zone.
What is the nature and level of the indifference?
First, there is indifference in society, in us. This probably has something to do with our lacking what Jawaharlal Nehru called ‘the scientific temper.' It also has something to do with our obsessiveness about the present moment. The irony is that seismicity is about the present moment, except that unlike the ticking hour-hand and minute-hand on the clock, it moves unseeing and unseen. Few know how many of our nuclear reactors are located or will come up in Zones 5 and 4, that our national capital territory Delhi and its neighbourhood and the entire Indo-Gangetic basin, Jammu and Bihar fall in Zone 4, that Narora falls within Zone 4. Not many would even otherwise have heard of Narora but for the fact that it houses a nuclear reactor. But it needs to be known and understood that Narora's twin reactors (2X220 MW) are an Indianised version of the Canadian CANDU-Type reactors, which operate on natural uranium as fuel which would be procured from the U.S. under the ‘123 Nuclear Treaty'. And that this major installation stands on Zone 4.
Second, there is a lack of urgency in seismic preparedness, in earthquake-tsunami policy. If the aam aadmi's indifference can be assigned to habits of mind, should those concerned with augmenting our seismic preparedness not address that indifference? Should we not be told in clear terms that non-scientists can understand, that are not self-justifying or self-exculpating but frank and consultative, as to how and why we need not worry about our reactors being located where earthquakes and tsunami are expected to occur? There is, after all, such a thing as error. And that can include errors of judgment in the calculation of the risk-factor. Should we not be told how and why we need not be anxious about the safety of our reactors? And, if there is cause for anxiety, if not alarm, should the nation not be taken into confidence about those areas of anxiety?
I was working in Colombo when the Kutch earthquake hit us, on our Republic Day, 2001. Shortly thereafter I called on Arthur C. Clarke in his Colombo villa-cum-futurist office. The visionary was confined to a wheel chair from an old spinal injury. He opened the conversation with the earthquake and wheeling himself to his bookshelves pulled out a copy of the squat novel co-authored by him, Richter 10. The novel, unusually, has a foreword by him which begins thus:
“Many years ago I was standing in a Delhi hotel when I became aware of a faint vibration underfoot. ‘I had no idea' I said to my hosts, ‘that Delhi has a subway system'. ‘It doesn't,' they answered. That was my one and only experience of earthquakes.”
So, Arthur Clarke's only novel about earthquakes begins with his only real-life experience of an earthquake. And that was in Delhi. Richter 10 is triggered by Delhi, which is right within Seismic Zone Four. Nothing seismically significant may happen in this zone for decades, even centuries. It could, today.
The protagonist in Clarke's novel, Lewis Crane, has been crippled and orphaned in the ‘great' Californian earthquake of 1974. He grows to be a physicist and a Nobel Laureate with a passion for devising a method for earthquake prediction.
The world does not heed him. The consequences are terrible.
Returning to the Kutch earthquake, Clarke went on to say that while earthquake prediction may take some more time, what should be done is to inaugurate a new architecture in quake-prone areas which would not oblige the devastation.
Where does earthquake anticipation in India stand today? There is some good news. Only, it is still not widely shared! India and Iceland are working together in this vital life-and-death field. But why does the nation not know more about that venture? Ought we not, for the sake of being better informed and being better prepared, be made aware of the consequences of ignorance and inaction and the advantages of preparedness?
As to quake-resistant architecture, do we know of major initiatives in our cities and towns to identify buildings that are vulnerable, either on account of their age or their quality? We do not. Do we know of clearly visible steps to regulate high-rise constructions in zones of high vulnerability? We do not. On the other hand, we have been treated to the following advertisement recently of a high rise residential structure coming up in the very heart of Zone 4: “…offers a variety of living solutions ... With …'s unprecedented levels of luxury, comforts & services, live above everyone else. Height titillates. Height satiates your desire to fly. It's at height that you come alive. With height, you break away from gravity and feel free …”
Building activity of the multi-storeyed kind proceeds in our Zones of High Risk remorselessly. That New Delhi and Narora where we have a nuclear power plant are located in Zone 4 where the general occurrence of earthquakes is of 5-6 magnitude, a few of magnitude 6-7 and occasionally of 7-8 magnitude and that, therefore, Delhi and Narora lie among the high-risk areas is something we should know about, and the State must do something about, visibly and credibly.
‘Richter Ten' is not fantasy for us in India, where the sub-continent's tectonic push into the sub-continent goes steadily on. Our great monuments, our gleaming new airports, our sky-scrapers and many of our nuclear reactors, existing and due, are all as vulnerable to the fatal caprice of that crawl as are our smaller homes and hearths.
The Prime Minister's announcement that the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board is to be a more autonomous and independent body to boost accountability and transparency in the functioning of the country's nuclear power plants is timely and is to be welcomed. It reflects a wholesome interiorising of Japan's experience. But this step needs to be accompanied by certain other steps like an independent, transparent safety audit of our nuclear facilities (as suggested by Professor Romila Thapar and others.) And these steps should be part of a major re-assessment of engineering and architectural styles, and a re-fashioning of construction regulations in seismic zones and the re-examining of plans such as Coastal Expressways, with a view to long-time learning from Fukushima.
(Gopalkrishna Gandhi is former Governor of West Bengal.)
Keywords: Fukushima nuclear plant, Japan tsunami, Japan earthquake, nuclear accident, earthquake, natural disaster, nuclear-quake year
Dear Gandhiji-there is abosutely no case for nuclear power anywhere in the world, be it made by local talent or pardesi. Just consider how daily giant surges in worldwide reservoir contents for meeting water needs at once causes giant earthquakes and tsunamies to occur:
See the glaring lacuna in the design of meeting water needs by modern civilisation's greeds:
http://glaringlacuna.blogspot.com
And how such a set caused the Fukushima chaos.
Please consider the holistic cumulative disaster picture painted by the truth, the whole truth and nothing by the truth. And adopt a normal civilisation as exhorted to by Mahatma Gandhiji at the turn of the last century. Also do your home work on the energy audit of nuclear power programmes:
http://energyauditnuclearprogrammeindia.blogspot.com/
In the present scenario of ' ENERGY HUNGRY INDIA', we can't rule out n-energy as per limited non-renewable resources like coal[major source of energy in INDIA] and increasing environmental problems associated with large hydro power plants like Reservoir-induced seismicity and on renewable front like in solar energy we have NATIONAL MISSION ON SOLAR ENERGY but problems of high cost and advanced technology are hindrances in fullest achievement of solar energy and wind energy can be better utilised in coastal and desert areas ,thus our country need a mix of all the energies available as per the geographical pattern of INDIA. Here the main issue is n-energy and we are managing it in a good manner, what we need further is to learn by JAPANESE-TSUNAMI and add it to our n-reactors - we can't check tsunami and other natural calamities but only security is in our hand ,as per geographical statistics - earthquake can be of maximum 10 on RICHTER SCALE but that will perhaps never happen because if happens, the planet EARTH will be torn apart in two parts so we can make our n-reactors EQ proof up to scale 9[i m not an expert so i don'd know whether it is possible or not],maximum height of the tsunami available is 30 meter so we can also protect our reactors accordingly ,one thing is certainly needed that is the independent NATIONAL NUCLEAR REGULATORY AUTHORITY to regulate our n-reactors,there is a one more chance to think over FAST BREEDOR REACTROS as they are cooled by liquid sodium which reacts with air and water so in case of any leakage or fire anything possible like that of using sea water will not be possible,we should increase the capacity of PHWR and we can have more of that. Most important thing is -positive thinking regarding the latest technology we should use it in a sustainable manner by exploiting the earth resources so that both can survive just like as honeybee take only that much from a flower so that both can dwell on this planet earth.
This article highlights the alarming situation of the people of India are in.There is need for realisation to bring the change in attitude (though which cannot be done midnight).Right to safety and security should be ensured first and we should also look from the perspective of the huge resources that this excercise would involve, which can be ensured through active particiaption of public resources.
A well-written article. The one thing that frightens me is that if Japan, with all its cutting edge safety measures for protecting lives earthquakes, was battered by nature's fury, what will happen to India, with its poor track record of following safety norms?
In and around New Delhi and National Capital Region, the boom in realty along with the expanding elevated structures of the Metro railway, has transformed ground level flimsy settlements to become five-storey match-box like buildings on poor foundations all along the Metro rail routes. Their quality of construction and safety during a major tremor are not immediately thought of other than making a tidy sum by renting out the properties to the burgeoning working population, who now find it convenient to travel long distances by air-conditioned Metro trains. A high intensity quake, if at all it occurs sooner than later in Delhi, is now far off from their minds. But if it does happen, the casualty figure and destruction would be enormous; and this is in spite of the awareness and propaganda advocated for safe and quake proof constructions following the Bhuj quake of January 26, 2001.
I am not an expert but I am sure solar energy if tapped fully can meet our energy requirements. This is the time to invest in green technology. Why should we be debating on zone 4 or zone 5 and where is the need of nuclear energy in a country where there is sunshine 12 months of a year. If given the required push,this technology could revolutionize energy generation in this country.
I have respect for you as a human being who is educated and socially alert and responsible. I wish with the kind of understanding you have about the Fukushima Daiichi reactor crippling, which is still in the initial stage of investigation, about nuclear physics and what level of damage the Daiichi-reactor-related radiation would do to a nation which has lost about 25,000 people and a devastation that could add up to $500 billion in cash, you should not have written this. The devastation it has caused to the society as a whole cannot be quantified.
Dear Editor: From an Indian context, apart from the points highlighted by the ex governor, what seems to be more apparent and obvious is the lack of planning and the subsequent taking into people confidence. At Fukushima, the danger now and then is not the reactor design or the exposure of the reactor itself. To quote: "The reactors at Fukushima and their containment structures held up quite well. There has been no containment breach despite the fact that they were designed for a 7.0 quake and survived 9.0 quake that moved the entire Japanese main island 8 feet and shifted our planet on its axis by 4 inches. The reactors designed to withstand a 20 foot tsunami, withstood one double that size. The REAL DANGER at Fukushima lay in the spent fuel rods housed in large, water filled pools in the reactor buildings outside the concrete and steel fortresses that surround the reactor cores. Its the on-site storage of spent fuel rods, not the reactors, that has caused most of the radiation detected and remains the greatest danger." The state of spent fuel rods in India is exactly similar to that in Fukushima. Spent fuel rods are stored alongside the reactors cooled by a pool of water. And there is no clear understanding or elucidation of how these are going to be disposed. While the reactor design might be sturdy enough we do need a very good understanding of how these spent fuel rods are going to be taken care of.
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