This year, not only did the monsoon reach India a few days late but its progress thereafter has been alarmingly lackadaisical. While Assam has been deluged and is reeling from the resulting floods, over 85 per cent of the country is suffering from far too little rain. The result is that the nationwide rainfall deficit stood at a grim 29 per cent at the end of June. Rainfall data for the past 140 years shows that even with a June deficit of that magnitude or greater, there is still a 60 per cent chance of the monsoon turning into a ‘normal’ one where nationwide rainfall for the season falls between 90 per cent and 110 per cent of the long-period average. The government, which has been pinning its hopes on a good monsoon to help propel economic growth, will undoubtedly be hoping for such an outcome. Even if the monsoon does turn out to be ‘normal,’ it is likely the rains will be at the lower end of that range. The probabilistic forecast in the India Meteorological Department’s updated monsoon prediction issued in late June has indicated that this is just what could happen. The forecast divides the traditional ‘normal’ range into three — ‘below normal’ (90 per cent to 96 per cent), ‘normal’ (96 per cent to 104 per cent) and ‘above normal’ (104 per cent to 110 per cent). The current monsoon has, according to the IMD, a 35 per cent chance of becoming ‘below normal,’ which is twice the climatological probability based on the outcome in past years.
After its poor showing in June, it is important that the monsoon revives quickly. Good rains in both July and August are essential for a ‘normal’ monsoon that is needed to sustain the kharif crop. July will be particularly important for agriculture. As it is, the sowing of rice, coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds have been hit. Much could depend on what happens in the Pacific Ocean. The temperature at the surface of its central and eastern tropical waters has risen. The worry is that the temperature rise might continue and result in an El Niño, which could adversely affect the monsoon. According to the IMD statistics, there have been 36 El Niño years since 1875. Of these, the nationwide monsoon rainfall was between 90 per cent and 100 per cent of the long-period average in 14 years and above 100 per cent in six years, including in 1997 that saw one of the strongest El Niños of the last century. But there were ‘deficient’ monsoons, with nationwide rainfall falling below 90 per cent, in 16 El Niño years. One hopes that if an El Niño does develop this year, it will be the benign variety. The government would, however, do well to plan ahead and get prepared to meet any contingency.
Keywords: Meteorological Department, monsoon
India has always been suffering from these two extremes droughts and
floods thanks to our destiny to gamble with the monsoon.The remedy is
that On one side we need to conserve the water and on the other side we
need to explore the possibility of interlinking the rivers across the
country to get rid of both the floods in north-east and droughts in
south west of the country.Its time to take up this gigantic project as
the advantages of interlinking the rivers outweighs the disadvantages.
On Sunday, I visited rice-producing areas in rural Bihar and was
surprised after finding most of the agricultural land deserted.. the
farmers had not started sowing of paddy seeds because of no-rainfall in
June, even they were not anticipating showers in coming days..Dark
clouds sometimes hovering but with no silver lining. The deceptive
monsoon may spark drought in Bihar, the State is on the verge of famine…
In an earlier article in The Hindu, it was stated that a possible La
Nina was detrimental to our monsoon. This editorial claims that a
possible El Nino is in the offing, and that it is bad for the monsoon.
Which one is correct?
Though Good rains are essential for agriculture, we need them to ensure
adequate drinking water also in the Urban areas as the volume of ground
water has been decreasing alarmingly in those areas. Governments should
enforce the rules pertaining to rain-water harvest pits strictly.
Your concern for the agricultural sufficiency of the nation is heartening. Our political tycoons give little attention towards exploitation of the monsoon bonanza Nature gives us annually in the form of copious rains.
It seems a little backward on India's development that even after so many years we are still dependent on the monsoon rains for our economic growth even though there are innumerable ways to harvest rain water and use them wisely, if at all an ElNino were to occur this year. Isn't it about time man took control of the rains rather than being at the whim of nature for so long?
I completely agree with Nirmala on all the valid points raised. There are also lots of waste water at Marriage Halls and parties. Borewell digging must be monitored closely and random bores should not be permitted. I also see a lot of fresh lakes rampantly being fouled and spoilt by industries. One good example is the Kundalahalli Lake near ITPL Bangalore. All the industry giants are rapidly converting this nice lake into a 'Cooum'. I hope the civic authorities wake up before we start paying similar price for water as we are currently doing for petrol.
It seems a little backward on India's development that even after so many years we are still dependent on the monsoon rains for our economic growth even though there are innumerable ways to harvest rain water and use them wisely, if at all an ElNino were to occur this year. Isn't it about time man took control of the rains rather than being at the whim of nature for so long?
I completely agree with Nirmala on all the valid points raised
There are also lots of water water at Marriage Halls and parties. Borewell digging must be monitored closely and random bores should not be permitted.
I also see a lot of fresh lakes rampantly being fouled and spoilt by industries. One good example is the Kundalahalli Lake near ITPL Bangalore. All the industry giants are rapidly converting this nice lake into a 'Cooum'. I hope the civic authorities wake up before we start paying similar price for water as we are currently doing for petrol.
It is heartening that you unveil your concren through an editorial while some of the print media tend to waste the newsprint on some trivia. You address with concern the need to sustain the 'kharif crop. Agriculture is a neglectected subject in the agenda of our political leaders. Many of them are nearly ignorant of the monsoon behaviour and the pattern of rain in the country. They are little bothered about studying the template of monsoon and initiate measures to improve the irrigation programmes. They preach round the clock development projects that involve big money, industries, technology and corporate barons. Perhaps they stand to gain in such ventures! No one denies the fact that these are things that require attention. But these things alone would not bring in food security for the people. The government would take seriously your counsel given in the closing sentence and ensure that a catastrophe is avrted by exploiting the monsoon bonanza the Nature gives us annually.
Till this time the monsoon has not hitted the country normal.
Countrywide rainfall deficit is approx 30% till the end of the
month.Further there is chances to develop El-Nino effect which adversely
affect the flow of monsoon in the country. The Government needs to
ensure proper forecast of the ongoing monsoon to tackle the emergency
situation if occurs.
The 'Adverse' El Nino was first forecast in December 2011. Government
should have planned the contingency and should have guided the farmers
towards cultivating the crops which need less water. Despite several alarming forecasts from various meteorological departments around the
world and our very own IMD, government did not respond to the need-of-
the hour. This shows our governments did not trust the IMD and depends
on the 'Supernatural' forces. The recent statement by Andhra Pradesh
Irrigation Minister that only 'God' can help us is an example of this.
(1)After studying historical data of monsoon rains over a long period, one university professor teaching in Shivaji University in Kolhapur, Maharashtra had pointed out last year that there is a likelihood of a delayed start of the rainy season on a regular basis. His research findings need scrutiny by weather experts. (2) Residents in metros, big cities and towns hugely depend on monsoon rain for their daily needs. Municipal corporations must consider recycling of waste water after examining it from angles of financial and technical viability. (3) Water treatment plants and desalination plants in coastal cities and towns cannot be set up without proper planning. Our urban planners need to give a serious thought to this aspect.(4)Incidentally, ordinary citizens do not understand much from all that information which the IMD bulletins give. The Hindu and Business Line correspondents are doing a good job of making that information as understandable as possible for the readers.
Every year the impact of deficit or excess in rainfall is hard mainly
because of total mismanagement of ground water. With good planning and
audit the ground water use can be managed wisely to meet the deficit
in case of weak monsoon or vice-versa. Ill maintained water pipes,
improper draining methods, death of natural lakes and ponds,
afforestation,if attended to immediately in war footing will go a long
way in assuaging our water woes. Also wastage of water should be
penalised to create awareness about water conservation. Especially
washing vehicles with piped water to be totally banned. Even
government held enterprises like railways,a big consumer of water,
wastes water callously by cleaning the tracks with water at the
railway stations.
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