Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s Prime Minister, was handed a pyrrhic victory in the country’s October 2 referendum where the public was asked to vote on the country accepting its share of 1,294 of the 1,60,000 refugees to be resettled from Greece and Italy under a legally binding European Union (EU) scheme. Apart from the loaded wording on the ballot paper, Mr. Orbán effectively had no constraints on the budget for his anti-migrant campaign, which included billboards across the country linking migrants to increased terrorism and attacks on women. About 98 per cent voted to reject mandated resettlement quotas, but the results were not constitutionally valid as only about 40 per cent of Hungary’s almost 8.3 million voters voted in the referendum, short of the minimum threshold of 50 per cent.
While Mr. Orbán has claimed the results as evidence of overwhelming support for his position against migrants, the opposition, which issued calls to boycott the referendum, has said that the relatively low turnout was an indication that most Hungarians were not on board with Mr. Orbán’s plans and therefore did not come out to vote. Though the validity threshold was not met, the Prime Minister has said the referendum’s results will have legal consequences, including a possible constitutional amendment allowing Hungary to flout the EU mandated resettlement plan.
Building fences
Mr. Orbán’s animus to the idea of Hungary accepting refugees is not entirely new; the referendum is only the latest of a series of measures he has undertaken to keep Hungary off limits for refugees. Last year, Hungary built a 500 km razor wire fence along its borders with Serbia and Croatia to block migrants, some 4,00,000 of whom had passed through the country en route to western and northern Europe. Mr. Orbán now plans to extend that fence. His actions on the ground are matched by his polarising talk — he has couched the refugee resettlement issue in terms of “Brussels or Budapest” and repeatedly questioned the ability of Muslims to integrate into his Christian Europe, further stigmatising Islamic communities. Mr. Orbán has been the most vociferous in his anti-migrant stance but his government is by no means alone. Its views are broadly shared by fellow members of the Visegrád group, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Hungary and Slovakia have already sued the European Commission over the legality of the refugee resettlement scheme.
Hungary’s stance touches upon at least two important themes: the EU’s integrity and the refugee question. Mr. Orbán has said the EU will have to take note of the results. In this he is right. In recent months, the EU has made clear to Britain that access to the single market will have to come hand in hand with the free movement of people. The oft cited ‘Norway option’ too gives Norway, which, unlike Hungary, is not even a member of the EU, access to the European Economic Area in return for Norway paying into the EU budget and allowing EU citizens access to its labour market.
The EU should stand firm that all member countries have obligations and responsibilities towards the Union and that an ‘à la carte approach’ as suits their appetite cannot be accommodated, not least because Hungary gets subsidies from the EU and single market access for its citizens. The European Structural and Investment funds allocated to Hungary in the current period (2014-2020) alone amount to €25 billion. Official Hungarian data reveal that the number of Hungarians leaving the country as emigrants has shot up from 7,318 in 2010 to 32,852 last year — that is, 25 times more than Hungary is being asked to resettle within its territory.
The EU under scrutiny
A larger question also remains around the extent to which the EU is fulfilling its legal and moral obligations towards the international protection of displaced persons. Financial support to countries such as Turkey and Afghanistan for repatriating or hosting refugees does not automatically imply a meeting of these obligations. During an international conference to raise funds for Afghanistan’s development, held in Brussels last week, the EU announced a deal with Afghanistan which could see tens of thousands of Afghan refugees being repatriated. The EU, along with other countries, pledged $3.5 billion in development assistance but a leaked memo linked European aid to Afghanistan’s willingness to take back refugees. These developments have happened at a time when the security situation in Afghanistan is possibly deteriorating.
Not too long ago, another October in 1956, 2,00,000 people fled Hungary in the anti-Soviet revolution, pouring into Austria and Yugoslavia. According to the UN refugee agency, 1,00,000 of these Hungarian refugees were resettled across 37 countries within just ten weeks. Perhaps it would do Mr. Orbán and his friends well to remember that October instead.
sriram.lakshman@thehindu.co.in
