The monsoon is likely to be “below normal” in 2017, says Skymet, a private weather forecasting company.
The rains from June to September are likely to be 95% (with an error margin of 5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm. Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, central Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu will get rainfall below their normal quota.
The chances of drought, or rains below 10% of the seasonal quota, are about 25%.
Over the past three months, international weather models have been warning of an El Nino, characterised by the warming surface waters in the equatorial Pacific, during the latter part of the year, which is known to cause poor rainfall six out of 10 times.
Counter formation
However, a favourable form of a current in the Indian Ocean, called the Indian Ocean dipole, is widely expected to counter the effects of the El Nino during the monsoon. Greater clarity on this will emerge only after April, say forecasters of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD’s estimate is expected next month.
Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet, says, “Evolving El Niño may start affecting the monsoon performance from July. Nevertheless, presence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could help in tempering the adverse impact of El Nino.”
At present, the IOD is in the neutral phase, but weather models are indicating that it may become positive during the second half of the monsoon. By then, the El Nino might also start reflecting its position, which, as per weather models, has over a 60% chance of coming into existence.
Pre-monsoon rain would be less during April, eventually leading to intense heating of the land mass, and will likely pick up pace during May, a Skymet press statement said.
Were the monsoon is to be below normal in India due to an El Nino, it would be the third time in four years, a climatological record of sorts.
