Apart from the absence of the Janata Dal (Secular) in the fray, development works taken up in the two constituencies and continuation of the traditional voting patterns appear to have paid dividends for the ruling Congress in the byelections in Gundlupet and Nanjangud.
On the other hand, the new Lingayat–Dalit caste axis attempted by the Bharatiya Janata Party to wrest these Congress strongholds not only did not work, but also appeared to have backfired.
Taking up the gauntlet thrown by V. Srinivas Prasad, who quit the Congress and the Assembly after he was dropped from the Ministry, the State government, apparently with an eye on the impending byelection, sanctioned and implemented a series of development works in Nanjangud, including roadworks, drinking water projects and drainage works.
Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, who canvassed restlessly, particularly in Nanjangud, strategically chose to steer clear from naming Mr. Prasad, let alone criticise him, in his campaign meetings. “This election was not necessary as we have Assembly elections next year. But, all of you know the reason behind the byelection being forced upon you now,” was how Mr. Siddaramaiah was alluding Mr. Prasad.
But, he would not only highlight the schemes for the poor such as Anna Bhagya and Ksheera Bhagya, but also the pro-Dalit and pro-backward classes programmes taken up by his government during the last four years.
The Congress campaign managers said their strategy paid off as a good percentage of the traditional Congress voters, including Dalits, backed the party in the elections. The backward class communities such as Upparas, Nayakas, Kurubas, and Muslims may have been relatively smaller in numbers, but together constituted a sizeable number of voters in both the constituencies.
The BJP strategy, however, focussed on luring the predominant Lingayats in both the constituencies by projecting the former Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa and also attracting Dalits by highlighting the “slight” to Mr. Prasad by the Congress.
The BJP’s hope of engineering a new caste equation in the region by wooing Dalits, besides banking on the its traditional Lingayat vote bank, failed in the byelections. It was banking heavily on on the charisma of Mr. Prasad, a prominent Dalit leader. The consolidation of this segment of voters, along with the Lingayats, Mr. Yeddyurappa had hoped would be a winning combination and would come in handy to replicate across the State in 2018.
While the new caste matrix appeared solid on paper and was important in the BJP’s electoral strategy, the electoral reverse has not only put paid to the BJP’s caste re-engineering exercise but has also backfired. The consolidation of the OBC and Dalit votes was in favour of the Congress and went against Mr. Prasad, if the margin of electoral defeat is any indication.
While the BJP had hoped that Lingayats would vote for it en bloc in Nanjangud, it had discounted the fact that the community has been against Mr. Prasad, perceived to be anti-Lingayat. Hence, the Congress was not only hoping to garner Lingayat votes to a large extent, it was also confident of a split in Dalit votes as not many among them were comfortable with Mr. Prasad joining the BJP.
