Unlike last year’s monsoon, Telangana this year was witness to deficit rainfall. Sudden sporadic showers at different places were a common feature rather than uniform rainfall across the region. This pattern could well continue into the next year, says B. N. Goswami, former director of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.
Prof. Goswami spoke to YUNUS Y. LASANIA about the monsoon’s patterns over the last decade, and the trajectory it might take in the coming years.
What has been the monsoon’s trend in India over the last decade?
For the last 10-12 years, it is on a decreasing trend, as there have been more droughts during this period.
Telangana has received deficit rainfall this year. However, there have been sudden and heavy showers that resulted in all reservoirs filling up.
This is happening in certain pockets only. It is mainly because of the wind pressure that heavy rains lash particular areas, in spite of being in drought areas.
Is that the reason behind last year’s Uttarakhand floods and the recent one in Kashmir?
Yes. Extreme rainfall is happening in many places, but it is randomly distributed. And they can be further intensified due to interaction of the middle latitude and tropical areas. Jammu and Kashmir had a big wave (air) going north, so both the northern and southern air caused instability in the atmosphere, resulting in extreme rain.
What do you foresee in the coming 10 years? What effects do you see global warming having on the monsoon and temperature in India?
Due to global warming, extreme temperatures will go up and night temperatures may not come down. Similarly, day temperatures may rise. About the monsoons, we are going to see more extreme rainfall in many places and it is likely we will see more droughts. But I have a feeling the increasing monsoon trend may also return.
