Opinion polls have gone wrong in the past. Exit polls too. On counting day of Verdict Bihar, several news channels got their math wrong in calling a BJP win, too soon and too early in the morning.
From the beginning to the end, Verdict Bihar as it played out on the news channels had twists and turns that define a blockbuster. In the end, the Mahagathbandhan led by Nitish Kumar won and so did Axis Ad Print Media Ltd. that had predicted a sweeping victory for the party but the predictions were not aired by CNN-IBN on Thursday. On Twitter, the efforts of Axis were acknowledged.
But that was towards the end. On Sunday, within the first two hours, with slender leads available with them, a clutch of channels, most notably NDTV predicted a BJP win. A tweet went out at 9.30 a.m.: “NDTV calls the elections. BJP and its allies all set to form the Government in Bihar with 145-149 seats.” Around the same time, CNN-IBN predicted a win for the Mahagathbandhan, after dipping into ETV Bihar data.
A majority of leading news channels had contracted market research agency Nielson to share its findings and the agency went about its work by posting its officers in 42 counting booths. As trends emerged, they were relayed to channels. The first to be counted are the postal ballots and these are in the region of a couple of thousands. When the voting machines are opened, the numbers leap by couple of thousands. The confusion, channels say, perhaps was in the failure of Nielson to clarify the difference between postal ballot and the counting on EVM machines. “From past experience, we know that postal ballot usually gives a lead to the BJP and this may have caused the channels to jump to early conclusions,” said a news broadcaster.
BJP workers broke into an impromptu jig as crackers were burst. Other channels like Times Now and News X were cautious but with the slender leads for the BJP showing up on their screens, discussions followed on the implications. Prannoy Roy of the NDTV offered an explanation and an apology. “The first data we got was all wrong and our trend analysis was based on the data which was incorrect. We have asked the agency for an explanation.”
At 9.45 a.m., the Election Commission showed the Grand Alliance in the lead. And that’s when channels started falling in line. By 10.25 a.m., there was a semblance of similarity among the news channels as they went about their tallies.
@abdullah_omar tweeted: “The BJP needs to get a refund from some news channels for crackers wasted this morning.” Today’s Chanakya sent out an email apologising to friends and well-wishers for getting their Bihar predictions wrong.
Sources in Nielson clarified that their information was based on the returning officers information. “A question to ponder about it is how channels were talking about leads at 8.30 in the morning when counting had not even begun in 30 counting centres out of the 42,” asked an Nielson official. With the exception of Times Now and Doordarshan, which were following the Nielson leads, which at any given time did not go beyond 10, news channels were giving information on 60 leads, said an Nielson official.
By 12, the venue for celebrations had changed. The Grand Alliance was declared the victor. Pradeep Gupta of the exit poll pollster Axis, whose sweeping verdict of 169-183 to JD(U) alliance, was not aired on CNN-IBN, said he was new entrant but had got his results right in the General Elections of 2014, the Delhi Assembly results of 2015 and now, the Bihar Elections. He refused to answer whether the channel had changed its mind after seeing his numbers favoured the JD(U) alliance. “I think I may even got the seat predictions right as I personally went to conduct the survey,” Mr. Gupta said.
