After Rafael Nadal’s rousing start to the clay-court season with back-to-back titles at Monte Carlo and Barcelona, the question on everyone’s lips was: can anybody take a set off Nadal? This, mind you, was not long after his creaky knees had given way again, not once but twice in six months. And yet, in just two weeks, he had managed to silence the naysayers.
Stretching back to last season, the 10-time French Open champion had won 50 consecutive sets on clay, a men’s record for a single surface. Only in one of those 50 sets had he lost more than four games.
As he asserts his dominance like never before, is he the overwhelming favourite at Roland Garros, which gets underway on May 27?
The numbers indicate that an 11th title in Paris is well within grasp. As ATP’s strategy analyst Craig O’Shannessy pointed out, Nadal won a whopping 60.9% of the total points en route to his Monte Carlo crown. In his record-setting 11 titles, only once before had he topped this number (64.1%, 2010).
Additionally, he also won 67.5% of his second-serve points, his highest-ever tally in the principality. He even collected 50.8% of the return points, meaning he won more points on his opponents’ serves than the server!
For Nadal, these return metrics have always been an important indicator of his form on clay. While his career return-game win % is 29.26, on clay it dramatically rises to 42.74 (before Monte Carlo 2018).
His typical strategy of standing way back, waiting for the serve to slow down to allow him the time for a full swing at the ball, and then moving closer to the baseline to dictate with his forehand has been a point-winner all along.
Does this mean Nadal’s game is impregnable? Certainly not. The Spaniard’s defence — though still of high quality — may never touch the levels it did in his heyday, mainly because of his slower-than-before footwork. A big power-hitter can take away his time, rendering the above-mentioned tactic shaky. Players in the past have found success by pinning him to his backhand corner. And consummate shot-makers still trouble him.
Even though he has dominated virtually every clay season for the last 15 years, he does typically lose one match. In fact, on either side of the 50-set streak were losses to Dominic Thiem, considered the closest to Nadal on clay. There have been occasions when he has been pushed back by opponents who incessantly pound his serve. Though his serve has vastly improved over the last year, his coach Carlos Moya admitted that they couldn’t work on it as much as they would have liked this season because of his injured knee.
Still, beating Nadal on the red dirt remains one of sport’s ultimate challenges. In the past 15 years, he has lost more than two matches on clay only thrice, and has even gone unbeaten twice. And when it comes to best-of-five-set matches, he is a different beast altogether, with a win-loss record of 104-2. With the men’s field as diminished as it is now, the prospect of a Nadal defeat looks remote. But where might a challenge come from?
Let’s take a look at the players who might be up for it.
THE CONTENDERS
Dominic Thiem
For a while now, Thiem has been heralded as the next best thing to Nadal on clay. The lead-up to the 2017 French Open proved this. Nadal and Thiem played three tough matches on clay with Nadal winning two. In each of those matches, Thiem pushed Nadal off the baseline and gave himself a chance to dominate with his fierce forehand from all over the court, hitting through Nadal.
It was a similar kind of performance which earned the Austrian another win at the 2018 Madrid Masters. Nadal had, in fact, thrashed him two weeks before in Monte Carlo, but Thiem carried no baggage. He played with freedom, took the ball early and seldom allowed Nadal to target his single-handed backhand. Nadal had no answer to Thiem’s powerful baseline game, although it must be stressed that the quicker courts in Madrid at a higher altitude favoured Thiem.
But the question is, can Thiem do this over five sets? The two have met in Paris twice before but the 24-year-old hasn’t even managed a set. In 2017, after Thiem had dominated Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals, he went on to get bagelled by Nadal. Thiem’s own form this time — the failure to win the Madrid title after having overcome Nadal and his loss to Fabio Fognini in Rome — doesn’t augur well.
Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev’s is a curious case. At 6’6”, he has a serve that can be a huge advantage on faster courts. But at the same time, he can grind like any dirt-baller and patiently construct points. The three Masters titles he has won thus far — two on clay and one on hard courts — reflect this.
The most recent of these came in Madrid where he made history as the first player to win a clay-court title without being broken since 1991 when ATP started keeping statistics. The week before, he had won on clay in Munich and in Madrid he convincingly beat Thiem.
The kind of tennis he played was near perfect, too. Like Nadal, Thiem stood way behind the baseline to return serve but this only resulted in Zverev starting every rally with a significant court-position advantage owing to his ability to land powerful serves and strike equally well from both wings. He also ventured routinely forward to finish off points, a tactic not many try against Nadal. With his wingspan, Zverev can be an intimidating presence at the net if he times his approaches well.
But against Nadal over five sets, it’s the staying power that matters and Zverev has thus far exhibited none. At the 2017 Australian Open, after having taken a two-sets-to-one lead, he seemed a spent force. Most recently Nadal demolished him in three straight sets on clay in the Davis Cup.
Novak Djokovic
Even when out of form, Djokovic is always in the conversation. For, he remains the only player to master Nadal on clay even when the latter was at his best. In 2017, Nadal was anointed the favourite for the French Open only after he showed that he could beat Djokovic (Madrid). The Serb had beaten him seven straight times before that, all in straight sets, and three of them on clay.
He played to a set plan — pound his returns and push Nadal back. His two-handed backhand was strong enough to neutralise Nadal’s crosscourt forehand and his own crosscourt forehand pinned Nadal to his backhand corner. Nadal could change the dynamic only after he spruced up his serve and improved his backhand sufficiently to break out of the losing pattern.
There is no reason why Djokovic can’t repeat this but his form over the past two years has nose-dived. Coupled with his physical and psychological travails, he has looked nowhere close to his best. Going into the Rome Masters — the last tune-up before season’s second Major — he hadn’t even made a quarterfinal. He is down to his lowest ranking in years and all except one of his defeats in 2018 (Thiem, Monte Carlo) have come against players ranked lower than him.
Yet, no matter how confident Nadal feels, there is still something about Djokovic that induces doubts in the World No. 2. A meeting in Paris will reveal a lot.
THE FLOATERS
The diminutive Diego Schwartzman , all of 5’7”, has troubled Nadal in each of the five matches the two have played. Though he has taken just one set, his stellar return game has caused Nadal problems. Even the amount of air Nadal puts under the ball, to take it high above Schwartzman, hasn’t perturbed him. In 2017, until the US Open, the Argentine had the best return numbers on tour, and if Nadal serves as weakly as he did against Thiem in Madrid, Schwartzman can capitalise.
Fabio Fognini can get under the skin of most opponents and it is no different with Nadal. In 2015, he beat the Spaniard twice on clay and all but one of his six losses have been close. An out-and-out shot-maker, Fognini boasts of variety, magic hands and blazing speed. The ability to strike winners from both wings even when on defence makes him dangerous as Thiem found out last week. But his bane has been his attitude and a lack of tactical nous.
There is nothing unorthodox about David Goffin . At 5’11”, he doesn’t strike fear but he is an electrifying presence on the court with uncluttered strokes and the capability to change direction deftly. His head-to-head against Nadal on clay isn’t encouraging — 3-0 in favour of the Spaniard. But he is one of few players who can rally with Nadal on equal terms. The Belgian has always had the shots to beat top players. But it’s only now that he is making good on the promise.
THE OUTSIDERS
Recently, Michael Chang made a startling claim that Kei Nishikori could beat Nadal on clay. The tools are there — a fine two-handed backhand down-the-line, timing to take Nadal’s top-spin-heavy shots on the rise, and a splendid forehand. But even his best has not been enough to dethrone Nadal.
A fully fit Juan Martin Del Potro can blow anybody off court. But can he do it on clay? And how will his body hold up? He did stretch Djokovic to four sets at the French Open in 2011. When given time to execute his forehand, he can be deadly. Of late, following his wrist injury, he has even developed a good slice which can come in handy.
Stan Wawrinka is a former French Open champion, and to get there he beat a near-invincible Djokovic in the final. He has outhit Nadal previously on clay, and if there is one player who can overwhelm Nadal, it’s him. But can someone on the comeback trail with little match practice achieve it?
