Election enthusiasts have to split their time and attention between Bihar and the U.S. in the coming weeks. One is a State, and the other is a country, but they are unique specimens for understanding the various possibilities and colours of democracy, contemporary and historical.
My first reporting stint as the Bihar State representative of The Indian Express , between 2003 and 2005 was politically eventful. I ended up covering two State elections in Bihar and the 2004 Lok Sabha elections not only in Bihar but also in Uttar Pradesh in two years. Exactly a decade later, in 2015, I went to the U.S. as The Hindu ’s representative. I have covered all elections in Bihar and U.P. since 2003, barring the two during my three-year stint in the U.S.
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Embedded reporting with candidates and studio punditry dominate the American election coverage, and people’s voices and concerns get a subsidiary treatment though they are not altogether absent. Opinion polls have a hallowed status in the coverage of elections in the U.S., and they try to make matrices on feelings and preferences — ‘Yes, No, Can’t Say.’ This never worked in India; and, in the U.S. also, this no longer works as well as it used to, as the mainstream reporting and predictions on the 2016 contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton showed.
More questions to ask
As people have an increasing number of questions to ponder over before making a voting choice, the traditional survey tools may have become less effective. For instance, all those who are opposed to China trade are not against immigration in the U.S. and vice versa . Parenthetically, not all those who vote for Mr. Trump are anti-immigration or anti-trade.
Election reporting in India, on the other hand, gave limited importance to opinion polls, certainly until the crowding out of nuanced political writing by mushrooming TV channels. Good election reporting in India involves longish conversations, distinct from interviews, with the public. If one is willing to engage in that exercise keeping aside biases and wishes, it is not difficult to arrive at a reasonably accurate assessment of the situation.
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Over the years, I have figured that one reliable measure of a candidate’s chances is the enthusiasm of her own supporters — which is very easy to figure, from the response at the rallies. ‘Energising the base’ has now become a thing in elections in the U.S. and India.
On the counting day of each election, I have waited with palpitation as if I were contesting! Rarely has an outcome surprised me — including the victory of Mr. Trump.
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This time, the virus has neutralised the election bug for all enthusiasts, and Bihar and the U.S. will be a test of how the pandemic has changed election reporting too. In the absence of gatherings, propaganda and the assessment of its impact have both become difficult and new techniques will have to evolve.
I wish to retrace the steps this time too, but the virus has the last word on the reporter’s itinerary, be it in Bihar or the U.S.
