The 16th Assembly election in Punjab, in 2022, is a watershed election for the State, also marking a political deviation from the past. The most notable feature is the verdict itself — a landslide, after a long time. A certain percentage of Punjab’s voters has always voted for the three parties — i.e. the Bharatiya Jana Sangh/Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Indian National Congress and the Akali Dal.
The average vote in the past five Assembly elections for the Congress and the Akali Dal-BJP alliance, respectively, has been 36.94% and 39.65%. But in this election, electoral bipolarity, a feature of the political system in the State till the 2017 election, seems to have transitioned to a four-party system. Even the BJP, in fourth place in this election with two seats, is most likely to chart its own course; it has never gained from alliances especially with the Akali Dal (1997-2020), winning only a 6.9% vote share in the last five Assembly elections. In the case of the smaller parties, they have never fared well while contesting on their own. Nor have they been of much help to their allies. The Bahujan Samaj Party, with one seat this time, has had a 4.33% vote share in the last five Assembly elections.
The Congress’s gamble
The second notable feature has been the dismal failure of the Congress’s gamble to line up behind the leadership of Charanjit Singh Channi (after the ouster of Captain Amarinder Singh) in the face of stiff opposition from Navjot Singh Sidhu, President, Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee. It was a desperate but bold move by the party high command which sensed a sentiment of anti-incumbency and was also aware of the intense internal wranglings within the Punjab Congress.
In choosing Mr. Channi, a Dalit Sikh, the party defied, in a way, the age-old asymmetrical social basis of political power in the State that has been in favour of the numerically strong, landowning Jat Sikhs. Most of the State’s Chief Ministers have been from the community since the formation of Sikh majority Punjabi Suba.
The Congress leadership might have factored in that Dalits, who constitute 31.94% of the State’s population, would help it win. Dalits constitute more than 30% of the population in 55 out of 117 (34 reserved) Assembly constituencies in the State. But even here, religious and caste divides among Dalits were an obstacle in the way of en masse voting in favour of Mr. Channi. Interestingly, other parties such as the Akali Dal — which promised a Dalit Deputy Chief Minister — were also looking at the Dalit vote. Rural Sikh votes also remained elusive for the Congress, mainly because of the party’s failure to bring relief to farmers. These votes did not go to the Akali Dal either. AAP may have gained votes as its government in Delhi was seen to help protesting farmers at the Delhi border when they were demanding a rollback of the farm laws.
The Congress’s second strategy, i.e., to blame the leadership of Captain Amarinder Singh for misgovernance/non-performance, did not find any takers. Even though there was an attempt to portray the government under Mr. Channi to be a new one, public perception was that it was essentially the same old party-government. Moreover, the Channi government had hardly any time before the election to show results for three crucial issues that haunt the State: drugs, sacrilege and the sand, transport, cable mafia. The Channi government made tall promises and big announcements. The Channi government also spent much of its time and energy dealing with inner party challenges and accusations levelled against it by its own party leaders, Navjot Singh Sidhu included.
Striking a chord
AAP’s stunning victory — 92 out of 117 seats — is reminiscent of its victory in the Delhi elections in 2015. The sheer scale of its victory, in terms of seats and vote share (42%), shows its widespread support across castes and communities. There are 39 constituencies in the State where Hindu voters constitute more than 50% of the electorate and AAP has won most of them. So, it is not only rural Sikhs who have extended their support to AAP.
How does one make sense of the landslide? The first factor has been huge anti-incumbency against the Congress and the Akali Dal, the two parties that have shared power at various times in the State over 25 years. This has been the period that saw a shift in the political narrative — from ethno-religious issues to better governance and development. Ironically though, the State has seen a deceleration in terms of economic growth; the first Green Revolution has run its course while the promise of a second one remains on paper. There have been frequent failures of cash crops in the State leading to immense distress for farmers; the Akali Dal, the self-proclaimed ‘farmers party’, has been unable to find satisfactory solutions. There are only 20 urban constituencies, the rest are overwhelmingly rural. This explains the importance of farmers and the issues related to them in the State.
Core issues in the State
Small- and medium-scale industries that once flourished in Ludhiana and Jalandhar have relocated to power-surplus and better governed neighbouring States such as Himachal Pradesh. The farm sector crisis in what is essentially a one-sector economy State has resulted in massive unemployment. There is also a social crisis, with synthetic drugs ruining the youth. There have been serious allegations about the complicity of politicians in the sand, transport, cable, liquor and drug mafias. While parties that have come to power have all promised a cleansing, in reality the situation has only worsened. The famed State police force which took on militancy is compromised and politicised. Punjab today is a pale shadow of its former self, when it was once considered to be the ‘model State’ in terms of governance and progress (especially during the Partap Singh Kairon days).
All these developments have also led to youth losing faith in the future of the State. There is a huge rush among youth to migrate overseas, with many taking huge risks. A failing education system is also making many unemployable when it comes to white collar jobs. Therefore, these burning social and economic issues may have also influenced women voters and the youth to consider voting for AAP this time. Women voters have outnumbered male voters in these and even the last Assembly elections.
Pitching the ‘Delhi model’
However, the massive scale of AAP’s victory, while a reflection of the anger and the dissatisfaction with the Congress and the Akali Dal, might be more a yearning for change and hope that the AAP leadership would be the right party to cleanse the system — a promise it has made since the 2014 Lok Sabha election. This was also a party marketing its ‘Delhi model’, with a promise of reforms in the health and education sectors, in turn possibly making even the cynical voter take note.
AAP made course corrections after its blunders in the 2017 elections such as bringing in “ outsiders” from Delhi for leadership roles. This time, the party not only projected Bhagwant Mann, a two-time Lok Sabha member and a Jat Sikh, as its chief ministerial candidate but also kept its distance from the Punjabi Sikh diaspora, suspected to be radicals by a segment of voters. Also, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal seems to have won acceptability as a leader in command in the Punjabi Suba, unlike the last time.
Ashutosh Kumar is Lala Lajpat Rai Chair Professor and Chairperson, Department of Political Science, Panjab University, Chandigarh. The views expressed are personal
- The 16th Assembly election in Punjab, in 2022, is a watershed election for the State, also marking a political deviation from the past
- The average vote in the past five Assembly elections for the Congress and the Akali Dal-BJP alliance, respectively, has been 36.94% and 39.65%
- The second notable feature has been the dismal failure of the Congress’s gamble to line up behind the leadership of Charanjit Singh Channi (after the ouster of Captain Amarinder Singh) in the face of stiff opposition from Navjot Singh Sidhu, President, Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee
