There were key takeaways from the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections in Kerala. The first was the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the State five times in just four months. This is an unprecedented number for Mr. Modi, who did not make such efforts in Kerala during Lok Sabha or Assembly elections in the past.
The second was that the two main rival parties — the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) — approached these polls with a political fervour usually seen only in Assembly elections. However, given that the voter turnout was only 71.27%, much lower than the 77.84% recorded in the 2019 polls, both the parties are now cautiously awaiting the outcome.
With lofty electoral ambitions and a strategic push in the south to establish the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as a pan-India party, Mr. Modi deftly navigated the rivalry between the Congress and the CPI(M) and their alleged appeasement politics. He also leveraged the perceived anti-incumbency against the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government. During his campaign in north India, he made it a point to mention the bitter exchange between Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who is seeking re-election from Wayanad, and Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. While Mr. Gandhi alleged that a CPI(M)-BJP nexus shielded Mr. Vijayan from Central agencies, the Chief Minister retaliated with indirect references to the ‘Pappu’ jibe. At the same time, both the Congress and the CPI(M) failed to effectively capitalise on Mr. Modi’s anti-Muslim rhetoric at a rally in Rajasthan.
Since the BJP-led government came to power at the Centre in 2014, the party has tactically attempted to make advances in Kerala. Through its campaign during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it also seemed to be preparing for the 2026 Assembly elections. The BJP leadership has attempted to cement its relationship to some extent with the leadership of the Nair Service Society and the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam to win the votes of two dominant Hindu communities — the Nairs and the Ezhavas/Thiyyas.
Unlike in the past, the BJP central leadership decided not to involve the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh during electioneering, perhaps under the belief that the heightened activism of the organisation may mar the chances of its candidates in Thiruvanananthapuram and Thrissur, i.e., Union Minister of State for Electronics and Information Technology Rajeev Chandrasekhar and actor-politician Suresh Gopi, respectively.
Simultaneously, the controversial movie, The Kerala Story, was aired on the national broadcaster Doordarshan. It was aimed at reigniting the so-called ‘love jihad’ conspiracy theory propagated by both Hindutva outfits and radical Christian groups. Soon afterwards, the Idukki Diocese, under the Syro-Malabar Catholic Church, screened the movie for students. The Kerala Catholic Youth Movement unit of the Thamarassery Diocese of the Syro-Malabar Church in Kozhikode also decided to screen the movie. However, the organisers later postponed the screening for a date after the general elections, as they felt that the issue was getting overly politicised. Many believe that the timing of the decision to screen the movie was part of a wider game plan of a section of the laity and the clergy within the Catholic Church to help the BJP win over the Christian community. The party also fielded Anil K. Antony, son of Congress Working Committee member A.K. Antony, in Pathanamthitta.
During the polls, Delhi Lieutenant Governor V.K. Saxena visited Kerala to have an audience with the heads of the Syro Malabar Church, the Jacobite Syrian Orthodox Church, and the Malankara Orthodox Syrian Church. This sparked a controversy, though he clarified that his visit was without any political motive.
The BJP also actively poached disgruntled leaders from the Congress and CPI(M) and tried to engineer defections from other parties. The admission of LDF convener and CPI(M) Central Committee member E.P. Jayarajan on polling day that he had met BJP Kerala in-charge Prakash Javadekar caused embarrassment to the CPI(M).
It was clear that the BJP intensified its campaign in Kerala this time. It seems confident of increasing its vote share in nearly all the 16 out of 20 seats where it contested banking on the Modi factor. But it remains uncertain on winning any seats.
