The BJP’s ability to forge alliances with prominent regional parties during Assembly and Lok Sabha elections enables it to win votes from wide segments of society with the exception of the bulk of Muslim votes. In Assam, for the coming election, the BJP gave up its alliance with the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and chose to ally with the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) apart from the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). Key leaders including the only sitting MLA from the Ganashakti Party joined the BJP.
Inability to form a counter-coalition
The opposition is dominated by two major alliances. The Congress is in an alliance with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), based mainly among Bengali-speaking Muslims; the Left parties; the Anchalik Gana Morcha; and the BPF. This alliance is expected to have a major impact in Muslim-dominated seats in Lower and Central Assam as well as in the Barak Valley.
Then, a regionalist alliance of two fledgling but prominent regional groups comprising the Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP), supported by the influential All Assam Students’ Union, and the Raijor Dal, which is backed by the left-oriented Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti, may impact outcomes in the Assamese-dominated areas, mostly in Upper Assam. Despite unanimous resistance among opposition parties to the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, they could not forge a pan-Assam coalition to counter the BJP. A State-wide counter-coalition would have been pragmatic given the BJP’s dominance.
There are three reasons why the BJP could stitch and retain a regionalist coalition while the Congress failed to forge a State-wide counter-coalition. First, the deepening religious polarisation and consequent Hindu consolidation in favour of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had foreclosed the possibility for the AGP to expand electorally on its own. Though it could not secure a seat in the Lok Sabha in 2019, the AGP witnessed a marked increase in its contested vote share. Factionalism within the party and the gradual appropriation by the BJP of caste Hindu votes, tribal votes and the tea tribes’ votes reduced the possibilities for the AGP to expand its political base on its own. Thus, its dependency on the BJP grew. The party has been more pragmatic than ideological — it decided to be a part of the NDA while simultaneously opposing the CAA. The shift of traditional AGP voters, caste Hindus in particular, to the BJP has ensured that this dependency may continue till the time the BJP remains a dominant pole in the State. On the other hand, while the Congress-AIUDF alliance may reap electoral advantages in minority-dominated constituencies, it remains self-limiting in Upper Assam constituencies, which are marked by ethno-linguistic diversity and religious homogeneity.
Second, the BJP’s strength also lies in projecting itself as representing indigeneity and the cultural identity of Assam. Its alliance with the UPPL and the fact that key leaders from the Ganashakti Party, which has a popular base among the Mising community, joined the BJP shows the national party’s aggressive alliance strategy. This not only puts it at an advantageous position but also helps it in its pursuit of cultivating an independent base among the indigenous groups.
Third, the Sangh Parivar’s long-term strategy of cultivating a base among the tea tribes has significantly contributed to the BJP’s electoral stability in Upper Assam. Implementation of welfare schemes as well as negotiation of pay hikes for the tea workers have been aimed at retaining the support of this populous community. Despite the territorial concentration of a few ethnic groups, several constituencies in Upper Assam are ethnically diverse with the tea tribes’ votes having a considerable impact in the outcome of the elections.
Mobilisation across sections
With the BJP now dominating the landscape, its allies have become more dependent on it. This has shrunk the autonomous electoral space for the regional parties. The constitutive basis of such a compulsive coalition with the BJP can be attributed to two processes. First, the BJP appropriated the question of cultural identity and indigeneity and infused it with deeper religious meaning and symbols. Second, it further deepened the dependency of diverse ethnic groups on it through the creation of development councils and ensured representation in political bodies. Thus, religious-based mobilisation overtook the ethno-linguistic basis of political mobilisation in the State. While the opposition parties were in a dilemma over forging a counter-coalition fearing religious polarisation in Upper Assam, the NDA has maintained a pan-Assam regional alliance.
Vikas Tripathi and Dhruba Pratim Sharma teach Political Science at Gauhati University, Guwahati
