The Aam Aadmi Party’s spectacular win in the recent Punjab Assembly polls shows that it has successfully crafted a new dynamic in State politics. In its election campaign, AAP exhorted voters to give the party “a chance” and allow it to replicate the “Delhi model of governance”, where it is in power. It offered several freebies against the backdrop of the State’s staggering debt of around ₹3.5 lakh crore. Will AAP deliver on its promises, and can populist politics help the party grow at the national level, in the run-up to the 2024 general election? In a conversation moderated by Vikas Vasudeva, Pramod Kumar and Ronki Ram weigh in on the challenges ahead for AAP and similar parties. Pramod Kumar is Director at the Institute of Development and Communication, Chandigarh and Ronki Ram is Shaheed Bhagat Singh Chair Professor of Political Science in Punjab University, Chandigarh
AAP contested the Punjab Assembly polls on the plank of populism and sought a “chance” on its governance model in Delhi. Do you think that AAP can make the leap to the national stage?
Pramod Kumar: First, we have to understand how AAP scored such a massive win in Punjab, and it is not merely because they promised freebies. To my mind, it is a three-layered phenomenon. The first layer of AAP’s success in Punjab is that they didn’t locate themselves on the fault lines of caste, religion or region. It largely followed a “catch all” approach, whereas the other parties positioned themselves on one or the other fault lines; for example, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) largely located itself with the rural peasantry and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with urban Hindus and the Congress, isolated from all the fault lines, tried to strike a chord with the Dalits. These traditional parties competed with each other and branded the other as either drug mafia, or sand mafia, much to the comfort of AAP. AAP presented itself as an honest new party, which could be trusted on the basis of its performance in Delhi. Then the branding of AAP as a trustworthy paternalistic caretaker party, through promises of free education, health, free electricity up to 300 units to each household, and ₹1,000 monthly stipend to women resonated with the voter. Lastly, in this exercise of populism politics, it has emerged as a new Congress to compete with the BJP and is also poised to target States like Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan, currently all bipolar party States. Their focus is now on these States. The whole politics of AAP appears focussed on replacing the Congress and competing with the BJP to emerge as an alternative at a national level. The party’s strategy has changed as it is moving from the local towards the national in comparison to 2014, when the party contested the national elections first, and then tried to enter into States.
Do you think that AAP could become a political force to reckon with at the national stage?
Ronki Ram: To my mind, in Punjab, AAP has entered not just because of freebies. The people of Punjab were definitely not happy with the leadership of mainstream political parties. If AAP is able to establish itself with good governance in Punjab, its emergence can’t be denied. Because the gap between elections in Haryana and Himachal Pradesh after Punjab is small, AAP would want to deliver on the promises in Punjab and present its model of governance — which would push the party towards becoming a national entity as a political force. Against this backdrop maybe the anti-incumbency factor in Haryana and Himachal would work against the Congress party, which in turn, could give a new shape to politics with the possibility of AAP emerging as a visible force.
Punjab has traditionally been uncomfortable with the ‘Delhi Durbar’ kind of culture and its exertion. AAP is controlled by Delhi. How do you think this will play out? How do you see the electoral prospects of regional political parties in Punjab?
Pramod Kumar: To my mind, in the new language and grammar of politics, the ‘Delhi Durbar’ somehow got either overshadowed or blurred. When people used to think of ‘Delhi Durbar’, they used to think that the interests, the rights, and the justice of the region blurred, because of the intervention of the controlling parties from Delhi. But in the recent elections, AAP presenting itself as a party from Punjab to deliver justice to people and liberate them from the traditional parties, showed a ‘reverse role’ of the ‘Delhi Durbar’. I think that the historical or traditional way of looking at politics may have to change now and, as political scientists or students of politics, we have to rethink the new language emerging at the grass-roots level. How AAP places itself with regional aspirations — for example, river water dispute, is a very crucial issue. How AAP being in power in Delhi, and also aspiring to be in power in Haryana and Himachal will be able to reconcile the claims of Punjab vis-a-vis Haryana and Himachal — will be a contentious issue. Also, this will provide space for the re-emergence of regional parties, mainly the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). The whole notion of Punjab was to have a Sikh State in mind and this will be a challenge for AAP. If AAP fails to tackle these issues or fails to answer the regional aspirations of the State, it might provide space to SAD to re-establish itself in this domain.
Ronki Ram: Bhagwant Mann, the Chief Minister of Punjab, before taking the oath of office clearly said that they would be taking guidance from the Delhi government. He stated that it would be a two-way process, they would take guidance from Arvind Kejriwal’s government and would also provide some suggestions from the State. In the near future, AAP will try to answer the federal-related questions of both the government in Punjab and the AAP government in Delhi. The party would be in a better place, to showcase two States working together in cooperative federalism. So here we need a new language and new grammar altogether, to understand New Delhi versus Punjab. I think people will wait and see what the new government will do; they are not going to buy the idea that “outsiders” are ruling the State. People want the government to resolve the real issues.
AAP made it a point to focus on basic governance — improving public schools, providing basic public health and responding to consumer issues in Delhi. This helped the party create an image for itself for being an efficient administrator. But the party has either tended to go with the establishment or has remained silent on issues related to foreign policy, asymmetric federalism, institutional autonomy. Will this populism allow the party to grow in other States as well?
Pramod Kumar: I think a good governance model is now a demonetised currency because a number of elections have been won on this plank. The more digital you become and provide efficiency in services, other issues will arise, which calls for moving away from delivery of services to income redistribution, allowing greater access for the marginalised populations and to integrate them into the economy. I think that the challenge will be bigger because the moment you achieve this, you face bigger challenges. AAP avoided the basic fault lines in Punjab and didn’t even mention certain crucial issues like national security, which are very important especially when it comes to having a relationship with Pakistan. Punjab has not been able to take full advantage of the trade between different States in India. At some stage, the party will have to face these issues as people in Punjab would want peace with Pakistan and open trade with the neighbouring country. If AAP supports this, it may mean making the party slightly unpopular in Gujarat and other States. The other issue is the agrarian crisis; there is a stagnation in agriculture. On the issues surrounding federalism, the party will have to evolve and become the main player in cooperative federalism, to draw maximum advantage from the Centre. Finally to grow nationally, AAP will have to face these challenges.
Is it AAP’s strategy to remain silent on issues such as foreign policy, federalism etc?
Ronki Ram: We need to study who AAP considers as its constituency — it’s the people plying auto-rickshaws, rickshaws, whose children study in government schools. Then there are the women and marginalised people. For these people what matters the most is employment opportunities, better governance, for example ease in getting domicile certificates etc., from government offices.
Are Pakistan and India going to fight? These issues do not matter much to ordinary people. And AAP knows this very well, and its worked on its strengths in raising local issues, which were people-centric. Before the recent polls, did you find any AAP leader talking about drones coming to Punjab from the Pakistan side. They focused on extending promises of providing 300 units of free electricity, providing better schools, health services etc., and said they will work towards fulfilling these promises. It is not their strategy to get lost in big issues.
Among its populist announcements, AAP promised 300 units of power free to each household, ₹1,000 to be given to all women above 18 years of age in Punjab. How difficult or easy a task is the new government facing?
Ronki Ram: This is the litmus test for the strength, performance, and capacity of the new government. It was not only AAP which raised the pitch surrounding freebies; other political parties also made promises. It all depends on the management of resources. This is a hard task; how to build your treasury, how to build your strength.
Do you think the Delhi model of governance can be replicated in Punjab by AAP?
Pramod Kumar: Punjab has a history of delivering on good governance. So, I think AAP may not have to do much work on that front.
The infrastructure and institutions are in place; AAP has to only restructure them, re-brand them and the fact is that the party is very good at branding. It can brand the work and market it. In fact, the traditional parties of Punjab were not good at branding and marketing themselves. I think AAP will be able to market itself well and this will be to the party’s advantage. AAP will maximise this advantage and Punjab will be seen to be performing well until the day that elections in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat are held.
Do you think that if AAP is able to provide credible governance, it will pave the way for other similar parties in the future?
Ronki Ram: Every State, every society is different; the ground realities are different. If similar conditions as those prevailing in Punjab are present in other States, and credible governance is provided, then the answer is, yes. Also one must examine the extent to which political parties stand discredited in States. The Congress certainly stands discredited in most States. But if you see SAD, it helmed the government consecutively for two terms. The point is you can’t take this as a model and try and plant it everywhere. The same Punjab, which made the Aam Aadmi Party visible at the national level in the 2014 general elections, did not give them the mandate in the 2017 Assembly polls. So, there are lessons to be learnt.
Ronki Ram is Shaheed Bhagat Singh Chair Professor of Political Science in Punjab University, Chandigarh; Pramod Kumar is Director at the Institute of Development and Communication, Chandigarh
