In early March, British Prime Minister Theresa May took to the stage in Glasgow to address a gathering of Scottish Conservatives as talk of a potential second Scottish referendum gathered pace. Mrs. May adopted a strategy of attack: lambasting the Scottish National Party (SNP) for “tunnel vision nationalism”, including in its approach to the EU referendum.
The SNP had been highlighting the significance of retaining single market access to the EU, but this, she said, clouded the fact that the U.K. domestic market was worth “four times more to Scottish firms” than Europe. She then pointed to an example of what she believed could be achieved outside the EU. She noted that Scottish whisky represented just a 1% share of the Indian market, thanks to a tariff of 150%. “I am determined we should do better than that for our key industries,” she said. “That’s why I led a major trade delegation to India last year, and why I was delighted to take the Scottish Whisky Association with me.”
That speech — delivered just over a week before Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s momentous announcement that she would be seeking Scottish parliamentary approval for a second referendum on independence — highlighted one of the challenges facing Scotland, which will have to weigh up EU and U.K. membership should a new referendum on independence go ahead.
More about market access
While Scotland voted decisively in favour of remaining in the EU (62% of Scots voted to remain, against 55.8% of Northern Ireland, 47.5% of Wales, and 46.6% of England), Brexit was as divisive of the “yes” and “no” camps of the 2014 Scottish referendum as it was of communities across the U.K., says John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and a noted pollster.
“Although a lot of people may have voted to remain in the EU, they weren’t doing so with an enormous enthusiasm that says we must stay above everything else,” he adds. It’s one reason why even after the Brexit referendum took place last year, opinion on independence didn’t change dramatically from where it was in 2014, when just over 55% of the population said they wanted to remain within the U.K. in the independence referendum.
Could that be about to change? Recent polls have suggested a rise in support for independence (to around 50%), perhaps spurred by the announcement of the U.K. government earlier this year that it would have no alternative but to leave the single market and the customs union — seen as a kick in the teeth by the Scottish government which in December published a White Paper setting out the case why it was essential for Scotland to retain unfettered access to it. Dubbing the Westminster government’s unwillingness to engage on this issue as a “brick wall of intransigence”, Ms. Sturgeon this week set out the case for a second referendum.
Her focus on the single market — rather than E.U. membership — is perhaps indicative of her awareness that it is the risk of losing this rather than full-blown membership that is likely to rile voters.
Exactly what question voters could face in a second referendum on independence remains to be seen. Ms. Sturgeon believes a referendum between autumn next year and spring 2019 would be ideal: by this stage the shape of the Brexit negotiations is likely to be somewhat clearer, enabling voters to make a more informed choice. While the U.K. government has the power to block the referendum from happening under current legislation, whether it would take the highly controversial step of doing so (particularly at a time it has emphasised taking back control and parliamentary sovereignty) remains to be seen. It is thought more likely that it could push to hold the referendum after Britain leaves the EU, though Ms. Sturgeon has warned that this would be akin to puncturing a lifeboat after sinking the ship. “I was elected as [First Minister] on a clear manifesto commitment…the [Prime Minister] is not yet elected by anyone,” she noted in a tweet earlier this week.
The factors at play
The biggest question going forward will be public appetite for independence. Downing Street has insisted that it does not exist, and there are certainly factors that may make Scots cautious about leaving the union, such as the impact of the low oil price environment on the Scottish economy. Leaving the union and joining the EU would also be a logistical nightmare, calling the current open border between England and Scotland into question. The Westminster government is likely to play on those concerns as well as highlight the potential for industries such as the Scottish drinks industry within a U.K. unshackled by EU membership, with links to fast-growing Commonwealth countries, and beyond.
However, winning that argument may prove tricky, given the already existing concerns about the future of sectors such as banking in a Britain outside the EU. An independence campaign is likely to emphasise the opportunities that remaining within the single market could have to attract investment from the financial services sector, among others.
There are other factors at play too: while all political parties in Westminster threw themselves into the “no” campaign in 2014, their ability to do so is likely to be more constrained this time round, particularly if Brexit negotiations are under way. Also given the electoral impact in 2014 for Labour of sharing a platform with the Conservatives (essentially electoral oblivion in Scotland), it is questionable whether they would do so again, particularly under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn.
According to Nighet Riaz, who headed “Scots Asians for Yes to an Independent Scotland” during the first referendum campaign and is currently standing for election as a councillor in Pollokshields, one of the most ethnically diverse wards of Glasgow, while opinion on the EU referendum was mixed within the local community, there is a real concern about the future. “On the doorstep, we are hearing people asking, ‘What does Brexit mean for us, our jobs, our mortgages, and our day-to-day living?’” She believes the campaign for a second referendum is likely to gather momentum. “Everything we were promised [in the first referendum] did not materialise: we were told we would be listened to, we were an important part of the union, but we have been disregarded and ridiculed on the same lines as before and during the referendum… we voted against Brexit and we are now getting dragged out of the single market.”
vidya.ram@thehindu.co.in
