The sudden retirement of two senior Democratic Senators shook the party’s leaders on Wednesday and signalled that U.S. President Barack Obama is facing a perilous political environment that could hold major implications for this year’s midterm elections and his own agenda.
The rapidly shifting climate, less than a year after Mr. Obama took office on the strength of a historic Democratic sweep, was brought into focus by the announcements that Senators Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut and Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota would retire rather than wage uphill fights for re-election.
With the chances growing that the election in November would end the 60-vote majority Democrats enjoy in the Senate — the practical threshold for being able to overcome united Republican opposition — the President and his party face additional urgency to make progress on his agenda this year.
There was no immediate sign that the developments would further complicate White House efforts to secure final passage of Mr. Obama’s main domestic priority, the overhaul of the health care system, but the political pressure on Democrats from competitive states and districts will not make it any easier.
Following on the heels of the news of the Senators’ retirements, Governor Bill Ritter of Colorado, a Democrat, also announced on Wednesday that he would not seek a second term.
Together, the developments heightened a perception that a conservative push against the President’s ambitious agenda, a sluggish recovery from the deep recession and an outbreak of angry populism have combined to deplete Mr. Obama’s political strength and give Republicans a chance for big gains in this year’s Senate and House races.
To the degree that the retirements reflect increasing scepticism among voters about the direction Democrats are pushing the country, Mr. Obama could face a tougher time winning legislative support as he presses ahead with initiatives on climate change, financial regulation, education and other issues.
Republicans seized on the resignations as a way to raise money and generate enthusiasm among voters in their conservative base. “Voters and donors out in the country see two senior Democrats, both of whom were perceived to be safe a year ago, now retiring for fear of losing,” said Rob Jesmer, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “This further underscores our belief that with each passing day, the environment is getting better and better for Republicans, which energises our people and demoralises theirs.”
The White House and Democratic Party leaders reached out on Wednesday to reassure other potentially vulnerable Democrats in an effort to prevent any more retirements or party-switching. Aides to Mr. Obama played down the developments, saying it would be foolish to make predictions now about the November elections before Mr. Obama had even delivered his State of the Union address. If health care legislation passes and the economy improves, advisers believe the President and the party will be in a stronger position by fall.
“We’re weathering the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression,” said David Axelrod, a senior adviser to Mr. Obama, “so it’s not a hospitable environment for incumbents generally. We’re in the majority party, so the brunt of that falls on us.”
“There’s not an election tomorrow,” said Mr. Axelrod. “There’s not an election next week. There’s not an election for 11 months.”
The effects of the retirements are not entirely negative for Democrats. Senator Dodd had been widely expected to lose if he had stayed in the race; his departure clears the way for Democrats to put in a stronger candidate — Richard Blumenthal, the state Attorney-General, who announced on Wednesday that he was running. Senator Dorgan was facing tough going as it was; his departure, Democrats and Republicans said, left the Democrats with an uphill battle to hold on to the seat in North Dakota.
While Democrats seemed confident about holding on to a majority in the Senate, they acknowledged that keeping their 60-seat majority would be difficult and that 51 votes are not enough to advance most legislation in the face of united Republican opposition.
For Mr. Obama, that means the legislative clock is ticking. Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the retirements of Senator Dodd and Senator Dorgan would not create a ripple effect among other senators facing re-election. Senator Menendez said the Senators were hiring campaign staff and raising money with an eye toward November.
Still, seldom has a week passed in the last few months when a House or Senate Democrat, fearful of the outcome in the midterm elections, has not switched parties or retired. And the image of Democrats struggling could have the effect of encouraging other Democratic officeholders worried about the political climate to step aside. “We should be concerned,” said Governor Edward G. Rendell, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, “and we should develop our plans and our policies and the programs we are going to push for with an eye to 2010. But there’s no reason to panic.”
While Republicans appear to be in a position to make strong gains in Congress, analysts say they appear unlikely to regain control of either the House or Senate, given the strong margins Democrats built after 2008. In the Senate, Democrats hold 58 seats and Republicans 40 seats; the remaining two are held by independents. About seven Democratic seats and four Republican-held seats appear to be in play now.
In the House, Democrats have a 256-178 majority. Despite the focus on the Democrats’ problems, Republicans are faring worse this year in terms of resignations putting seats in play. In the House, 14 Republicans and 10 Democrats are retiring. — © 2010 The New York Times News Service
