The re-election of Emmanuel Macron in Sunday’s presidential race is a relief not just for France’s political centrists but also for its allies in Europe and America. The election took place amid crises — high inflation; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that pushed France into a difficult choice of imposing sanctions on Moscow even at the cost of higher energy prices; and growing political disillusionment among the country’s youth. The first round had seen the far-right rising to its highest ever levels — Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour together gathered more than 30% of votes. Yet, Mr. Macron secured a decisive victory in Sunday’s run-off, with 58.5% vote share against Ms. Le Pen’s 41.5%, showing that the centre can still hold in France. The banker-turned politician, who emerged as the surprise champion of French Republican values against an upsurge of far-right populism five years ago, managed to rally the anti-populist base once more. He went to the voters with three broad themes: his administration’s economic performance, a defence of France’s Republican values and support for European sovereignty. While France’s quick return to growth and low unemployment rate helped him project a convincing macroeconomic picture, his attack on Ms. Le Pen as a threat to the French Republican values and the tough line he took on Ukraine allowed him to mobilise the liberal, centre-right and pro-European sections of voters.
Mr. Macron’s victory offers stability for both France and the EU. But a closer look at the two rounds of elections provides a more complicated picture. The French political landscape, historically dominated by the centre-right conservatives and centre-left socialists, has undergone a major transformation. Mr. Macron has emerged as the poster boy of the centrist bloc, the largely status-quoist voters. And his key challengers are from the far-right, which has anti-Semitic and Islamophobic roots. The third bloc is led by leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who finished third in the first round. The surge of the far-right and leftist candidates suggests that there is widespread voter anger towards the establishment. And the far-right populists, with their cocktail of anti-establishment welfarism and anti-immigrant rhetoric, seem to be better-equipped to tap this anger than the leftists. Ms. Le Pen may not be strong enough, as of now, to capture power, but she was strong enough to pose a credible challenge to Mr. Macron. In his victory speech, Mr. Macron admitted that there is growing anger among sections of the voters towards the political establishment and promised to tackle it. Going forward, his biggest challenge would be to reach out to the disaffected sections of society, address the growing anger in the underbelly of the working classes, and build credible alternatives to the far-right problem.
