A mixed bag: On U.S. midterm elections

Donald Trump does not appear to be as strong as he was, and Joe Biden is no longer weak

November 16, 2022 12:10 am | Updated 12:02 pm IST

From high inflation to America’s support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion, a host of domestic and foreign policy issues had dominated this month’s U.S. midterm elections, which were largely seen as a referendum on the Biden administration. When most of the results were out, the Democrats avoided a humiliating defeat. There was no ‘red wave’ for the Republicans. The Democrats have already retained their control of the Senate, while the fate of Georgia would be decided in a run-off. The Republicans, however, are inching closer to a House majority. The net result could complicate President Joe Biden’s governance agenda. The Republicans, with the House under their control, can influence the January 6 riots probe, stall the administration’s legislative agenda and put additional riders on America’s support for Ukraine. Still, for Mr. Biden, whose approval ratings have been poor, his party’s performance, the best for a ruling party in midterms since 2002, is a morale booster, strengthening his hand and coming in handy if he decides to run for re-election in 2024.

There are many other takeaways. While pre-poll surveys suggested that inflation topped voters’ concerns, abortion rights came second. While the Republicans tried to cash in on voter resentment over high inflation, many of their candidates’ anti-abortion positions did not help them in the polls. Second, the results showed that Donald Trump is not as powerful as he appeared to be. During the Republican primaries, the former U.S. President’s endorsement mattered a lot. But it does not carry the same weight in the general elections. Several of the candidates he endorsed were defeated, while at least two Republican winners were unwelcome to him — Georgia’s Governor Brian Kemp and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. While Mr. Trump is expected to make his 2024 bid this week, many Republicans are already blaming him for the party’s less-than-expected performance. The results have also underscored the unstoppable rise of Mr. DeSantis. His landslide win in what was called a swing State has strengthened calls by Republican donors for his presidential bid. Many see Mr. DeSantis as a more ideologically disciplined right-winger than Mr. Trump (who, in their view, could lead the party to victory). The midterm has set the stage for 2024. The Democrats have lost ground, but still stay strong. The Republicans are set to take the House but are internally divided, and right-wing extremism is not winning the party votes. How the parties address these challenges will determine their fate in 2024.

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