The Korean Peninsula is no stranger to tensions. But the ultimatum given by North Korea to the South to either stop its propaganda broadcasts across the demilitarised zone (DMZ) or face war has raised them to their highest level in many years. The Koreas are still technically at war, as the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice agreement and not a proper ceasefire. Since then there have been several incidents of border violence, and leaders on both sides have occasionally exchanged high-decibel rhetoric. The latest flare-up is particularly menacing because of at least two factors — the growing unpredictability of the North Korean regime under Kim Jong-un, and the relatively more assertive response by South Korea to provocations. The North is going through several internal challenges. At least 70 top-level government officials, including the Vice-Premier, were reportedly executed since Mr. Kim took power in 2011, indicating that the regime is using brute force to sustain itself and silence dissent. Second, the North Korean state media have confirmed that the country is facing the “worst drought” in a century. This spells a major economic crisis. Whipping up tensions with the South could be a deliberate strategy on the part of Mr. Kim in order to divert attention from crucial internal problems. The latest crisis started with a landmine blast in the DMZ in which two South Korean soldiers were injured. Seoul retaliated by resuming anti-North propaganda, which led to shelling from the North and counter-artillery fire from the South.
While the two countries have not had a full-scale armed conflict since 1953, tensions on the peninsula have remained high, particularly after the North went nuclear in 2006. With the U.S. remaining committed to “defending” South Korea, any major confrontation between the North and the South could potentially lead to a nuclear conflagration. South Korea’s dilemma is understandable. Dealing with an erratic dictatorship will never be easy. But responding to provocations from the North in the same coin is not going to serve its interests. Seoul should rather regain its rational restraint, and use diplomatic means to tone down tensions. It could reach out to China, the only major ally of the North, to put pressure on Pyongyang. If Beijing is serious about taking a more proactive regional leadership role, North Korea will be the best starting point. The recent Iran nuclear deal shows that even complicated international issues could be resolved through imaginative diplomacy. But whether the Koreas and their respective backers have the will to earnestly pursue a diplomatic solution, is the big question.
