(This is the latest edition of the Political Line newsletter curated by Varghese K. George. The Political Line newsletter is India’s political landscape explained every week. You can subscribe here to get the newsletter in your inbox.)
Hope and fear are two basic instincts that motivate human actions. People do things in the hope of something, or the fear of something, or most of the time due to a combination of both. Usually it is the hope of reward and the fear of punishment that nudges people into action. The selection of Chief Ministers by the Bharatiya Janata Party in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh demonstrates how the ruling party thrives through an optimal proportion of both these two factors among its cadres.
But it is not quite the reward-punishment binary. Had that been the case, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who led the party to a massive victory, had all claims to be rewarded in Madhya Pradesh. It is also not that the new CMs in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan deserved the post because of any remarkable contribution that they made to the party. Chhattisgarh’s new CM Vishnu Deo Sai was at least in the long list of speculated names for the top post. CM picks for M.P. and Rajasthan were completely unexpected.
The BJP effected a change in its leadership in M.P. and Rajasthan by overlooking the claims of Mr. Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje, both of whom remain the most popular leader of the party in these States respectively. Now that they are out of power, their capacity to remain popular could diminish. They were asked to step aside and make way for new leaders, who were not even in the long list of probables suggested by long-term party watchers.
The election was fought in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and he exercised the right to choose the CMs. The new CMs owe their elevation to just one person, and that is Mr. Modi. Anyone else selected by him would command the same political legitimacy.
That reality brings hope for all people who have not made it to a position of power and fear for all those who currently occupy a position of power in the ruling party. The BJP today is not dependent on regional satraps. It is entirely dependent on one leader’s popularity, which in turn is partly the outcome of a popular mood that is supportive of its Hindutva politics.
The generational shift involves the message that any leader can be replaced; and any worker can be elevated. Mr. Modi has always portrayed himself as an example – from a humble beginning, rising through the ranks to become the PM. The same story is true for several other BJP leaders, but leaders once in command rarely give way to newcomers. That is the bane of political parties that the BJP has overcome at least for the moment.
Every BJP worker now dreams of going higher; every BJP leader now fears falling from the pedestal. Those who are unseated or ignored might harbour resentment and grudge, but they cannot form a united front despite their shared agony. Because all of them hope again – that perhaps they might bounce back, or at least be able to preserve their limited domains. The paradox of this otherwise useful dynamics of hope and fear for the BJP is that it is all dependent on one supreme leader, Mr. Modi.
Federalism Tract: Notes on Indian Diversity
Supreme assault
The Supreme Court of India judgment that upheld nullification of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution that extended autonomy to the erstwhile State of Jammu and Kashmir was not unexpected but its implications for federalism are going to be sweeping. The verdict is a political boost to the ruling BJP at the Centre. The SC’s refusal to address the question of whether the Centre can unilaterally downgrade a State to a UT, effectively endorsing the Centre’s power to do so, has now set a new precedent. Read our editorial here.
If you are interested in a lucid, scholarly commentary on Article 370, you could listen to Srinath Raghavan here. You will be surprised that most of the things that you read in those WhatsApp forwards were contrary to the truth.
The home and the world
Hindu Americans have planned a series of events to share in the celebrations around the Ram Mandir inauguration slated for January 2024: lighting diyas, holding car rallies, live-screening the inauguration toa large community gathering. Saffron outfit Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America (VHPA) is spearheading the celebrations and has launched a website to facilitate participation of temples and individuals. The idea, it says, is to enable Hindus from around the world to participate in the celebrations despite being dispersed across the world.
Tea break in T.N.
A day after moving the Supreme Court over inaction on passed Bills, the Tamil Nadu government informed it that Chief Minister M.K. Stalin has accepted an invitation from Governor R.N. Ravi for a discussion over hot tea. Chief Justice of IndiaD.Y. Chandrachud cautioned that the business of governance and government should not suffer due to political gridlocks. Tamil Nadu has been at the centre of political slugfest between the elected State government and the Governor due to inaction on Bills passed by legislature. Several Opposition-ruled States have raised concerns over exercise of discretion by Governors in acting upon Bills. But having a tea together may not necessarily end the acrimony, Mr. Stalin has told us in an interview.
