August could bring rains, but with 20% monsoon deficit

Southwest monsoon has been weak, says IMD Director

July 25, 2019 11:05 pm | Updated 11:05 pm IST - HYDERABAD

A view of Baswapuram pond that has dried up due to rain scarcity in Khammam district.

A view of Baswapuram pond that has dried up due to rain scarcity in Khammam district.

Summer like sultry conditions in twin cities and elsewhere across Telangana are likely to relent this weekend with some rains forecast in 50-60% of area. However, the dry spell will again continue after that. August is giving a glimmer of hope with “normal” monsoon rains, said India Meteorological Department, Hyderabad, Director Y.K. Reddy.

“Southwest monsoon has been weak. We had already forecast a deficit rainfall of 97% but delay in onset of monsoon in June by more than 15 days has affected its progress. We are now projecting a deficit of 38% from earlier 48%,” he explained.

“June was deficit and 10% rainfall was made up this month. Southwest monsoon is the only hope for Telangana as most of its rainfall is received during this season but we are expecting a 20% deficit overall,” said Mr. Reddy.

Lack of rains is also causing dry and sultry conditions to prevail across the State with air-conditioners becoming operational once again in households and business establishments. A single factor cannot be pinpointed for the continuing dry spell, he said, pointing out that the El Nino has been showing a gradual decline over the last two months and could become neutral next month.

‘No drought yet’

“We cannot say El Nino is the only factor which is causing the dry spell. We have had such situations before and although we have not yet reached drought kind of condition, this dry spell is also prevalent in neighbouring regions of Karnataka, Marathwada and others leading to low inflows into the river basins,” he said. The IMD Director said depressions and low pressures in the Bay of Bengal are another means of getting widespread rainfall in TS yet for that to happen these should be formed across the coasts of Andhra Pradesh or Odisha.

“During the monsoon we usually have four to five depressions or low pressures every month. Last week’s low pressure went off towards north and Bihar so we could not benefit. Another one is currently forming near West Bengal,” he revealed.

Telangana and Hyderabad cannot expect to benefit from the North-east monsoon expected from October onwards because the beneficiary regions are Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and south coastal AP. “TS and Hyderabad will be receiving only 15% of the rainfall during that period,” he explained.

The ongoing heavy rains in certain States like Kerala is explained as “pulse propagation of monsoon” where such heavy rain bursts occur in certain places during this period. Heavy downpours within a limited time in certain areas is attributed to vagaries of climate change.

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