Tamil Nadu’s political scene is expected to be largely shaped by two crucial legal battles in 2015, which will probably set the stage for an all-important electoral showdown the year next when the Assembly elections are due.
The biggest news-maker of 2014 was, no doubt, the former Chief Minister and AIADMK supremo Jayalalithaa.
Till September, when a special court in Bengaluru convicted her in a corruption case, hardly anyone gave the Opposition in the State a chance to stage a comeback.
The AIADMK juggernaut reached its peak in the Lok Sabha elections in April. Keeping at bay a nationwide wave in favour of the BJP and its talisman Narendra Modi, “the Lady of Tamil Nadu” managed to pocket 37 of the 39 parliamentary seats. The party led in over 200 Assembly segments, reflecting the sustained popularity she had achieved ever since she came back as Chief Minister in 2011.
While the beleaguered Opposition continued to look for issues to stay relevant, a setback came to Ms. Jayalalithaa through the court ruling. Convicted and sentenced to four years imprisonment in the disproportionate assets case, she was forced to climb down from the saddle. Her loyalist O. Panneerselvam took over the reins for the second time in 13 years.
Ms. Jayalalithaa’s immediate political future would largely depend on which way her appeal over the trial court judgement goes.
On the other hand, while Mr. Panneerselvam leads a strong majority government in the State, his performance has come under severe criticism from political parties. Slow decision-making, the most consistent charge thrown at the current dispensation, could become a worry for the party in the run-up to the 2016 Assembly polls if not remedied swiftly.
The other major story has been the failure of the DMK to take advantage of Ms. Jayalalithaa’s conviction. The party remained overcautious in its reaction to the verdict, possibly owing to the shadow of the 2G case following some of its leaders.
A party in transition, the DMK is grappling with sweeping internal changes being ushered in by its treasurer M.K. Stalin.
Flags of protest have already been raised with the ongoing internal party elections causing a churning. With Kanimozhi, daughter of DMK president M. Karunanidhi, being one of the accused in the 2G case, its judgment, expected to be delivered by the year-end, would have far-reaching consequences for the organisation.
In the meantime, the two corruption cases against leaders of the principal Dravidian parties have heightened expectations of a political vacuum opening up in the State.
The BJP, though remaining a weak force organisationally, has set Tamil Nadu firmly on its radar.
The year gone by also saw the emergence of a new political force in the revival of the Tamil Manila Congress, led by former Union Minister G.K. Vasan, further fragmenting the political space which already has players such as the DMDK, the PMK, the VCK and the MDMK. However, their fate too may depend on how the AIADMK and the DMK fight their legal battles.
