The higher voter turnout witnessed in Vikravandi during Monday’s bypoll when compared to the figure posted during the 2016 Assembly election is in sync with the traditional voting pattern in Tamil Nadu.
There are exceptions to this trend, such as the reduced polling percentage recorded by Nanguneri, which also saw a byelection on Monday. But any ‘byelection vs Assembly election’ comparison of voter turnout data in constituencies will reveal that bypolls draw a greater number of voters to polling booths than Assembly polls.
This trend has become much more pronounced in the last 15 years, more so after the January 2009 Thirumangalam byelection. At that time, the DMK was in power and made it a matter of prestige to snatch the seat from the Opposition. Eventually, it emerged the victor, defeating the AIADMK, but in the process, allegations of cash distribution led to the party being linked to the ‘Thirumangalam formula’. Perhaps, due to this factor, nearly 18% more electors cast their votes in the byelections when compared to what was seen in the May 2006 Assembly election.
In July 2013, when the State Election Department did a KABP (Knowledge, Attitude, Behaviour and Practice of Voters) baseline survey as part of its preparations for the 2014 Lok Sabha election, 28% of respondents told the authorities that intimidation, distribution of money and freebies did influence their voting behaviour during elections. What is acknowledged privately by leaders of the two principal parties – the DMK and the AIADMK - is that the practice has only become more pervasive.
There are also other factors in play at the time of byelections. It has become mandatory for the two Dravidian majors to give area-wise assignments to their senior leaders for coverage, leading to a high degree of political mobilisation. For example, in Nanguneri, the DMK deployed senior functionaries like I. Periyasamy and Thangam Thennarasu. In Vikravandi, the AIADMK drafted Local Administration Minister S. P. Velumani apart from Law Minister C.Ve. Shanmugam, who accompanied Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami and his deputy O. Panneerselvam during their campaign in the constituency.
Reverse trend
At the same time, a reverse trend is becoming visible in some parts of the State. Of the 22 Assembly constituencies where byelections were held in April-May, eight had polled a lower turnout than in the 2016 Assembly election. Among them were Tiruvarur, represented by former Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi during 2011 and 2016, and Andipatti, from where another former CM, Jayalalithaa, was elected in 2002 and 2006.
