The government is in the midst of finalising a national vision plan to make India a developed nation by 2047 and ensure that the country doesn’t slip into a middle-income trap that several countries have fallen into at similar stages of development.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to unveil the plan within the next three months, which includes an outline of reforms and outcomes to be achieved by 2030, along with structural changes in governance that will be critical to make India a $30 trillion economy by 2047 with a per-capita income of $18,000-20,000.
The Niti Aayog is giving finishing touches to the plan called ‘Vision India@2047’ that has been in the works for almost two years and was presented to Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba last Monday. In November, parleys will be held with thought leaders, including corporate honchos such as Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, Gautam Adani, Mukesh Ambani, K.M. Birla, N. Chandrasekharan and Indra Nooyi, to glean their insights.
“By December, we will have the draft version of the plan ready, and several States are also in the process of preparing their own road maps,” Niti Aayog Chief Executive Officer (CEO) B.V.R. Subrahmanyam said on Sunday. The national plan also seeks to address regional cleavages in economic development and reforms of government processes.
“The biggest thing we’re all worried about is what is called the middle-income trap. You can reach a $5,000-$6,000 per capita income, and then will not move fast. The whole purpose of the vision is to avoid that and take the country to the next level,” he said, citing the example of Argentina, that has failed to live up to its promise over the years.
“We have cut through the poverty issue, we have resolved the problems of the last century which are roads, electricity, and water, and in a couple of years these challenges won’t remain. Now we have to get to the next level, our momentum will take you through the next three to four years, then you will start hitting this middle-income trap,” the CEO of the government’s think tank explained.
“How do you address regional disparities, as you see growth in India happening in some parts, with the East and North getting left behind and the West and South pushing ahead. It’s not good for the country,” he averred.
While India’s share of the global GDP has tripled from 1.1% in 1991 to 3.5% in 2023 and it has become the world’s fifth largest economy, none of the world’s largest banks, contractors, legal, consultancy or accountancy firms are from India, Mr. Subrahmanyam pointed out.
“The whole thing is there should be Indian firms dominating parts of the landscape. We are the world’s largest IT sector in terms of exports but are we the biggest software developer?” he asked rhetorically, noting that the plan also explores which sectors and companies can be pushed to become global champions.
Developing the skill sets that India’s young population need to meet global needs, is another priority. “There’s a huge demand for our nurses in the world but half our colleges are not even accepted on the other side. So some States are sending nurses in huge number, while some are not,” Mr. Subrahmanyam noted.
