The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a cyclone in the Arabian sea that is likely to move towards Gujarat and Maharashtra by June 3.
Also read: Low pressure over Bay of Bengal intensifies into depression: Met
While such storms are common at this time of the year, their path can have a bearing on the progress of the monsoon. The IMD has indicated that the monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala early this week though other agencies say it has already set in.
Currently, the storm in the Arabian sea has been classified as a ‘low pressure area’. It is the first step in a four-rung classification system of increasing intensity that culminates into a ‘cyclonic storm’. As of now, meteorologists expect it to move almost parallel to the west coast and then by Wednesday take a turn and make landfall in either Gujarat or Maharashtra.
Because the onset of monsoon over Kerala is imminent, meteorologists say that such a track could, in the worst case, stall the monsoon. “If the storm stays close to the coast it could help push the monsoon related circulation further up along the coast. However, if it turns towards Oman it could suck away moisture and winds,” said D.S. Pai, head of Climate Research and Services, National Climate Centre, IMD. Were the cyclone to turn towards the mainland it would, other than the associated destruction from a cyclone, stall the monsoon.
Also read: Maharashtra likely to receive pre-monsoon rain next week
Last year, cyclone Vayu that formed in the Arabian sea stalled the monsoon after it entered Kerala on June 8.
The Hindu reported on Friday that IMD’s weather models weren’t expecting a cyclone. Only one model, by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, was forecasting a cyclone. It now appears that even the IMD models concur.
Conditions for the monsoon to enter into Kerala by the second of June were becoming conducive, said Mr. Pai. A key criteria for declaring the monsoon as having arrived is that at least 8 of the 14 meteorological stations in Kerala and Karnataka consistently measure more than 2.5 mm of rain for two continuous days. In addition, there should be strong winds at prescribed heights as well as a pulse of radiation. “Most of these criteria were being met,” he added.
On May 15, the IMD had said the monsoon would be delayed by four days from its normal date of onset on June 1 primarily because of the conditions created by cyclone Amphan.
