COVID-19 transmission has generally come down in the State and the epidemic curve has remained on a plateau for nearly a month. However, the test positivity rate (TPR) and doubling time trends, two key indicators of the rate of infection or the spread of the virus, are beginning to change in certain districts, indicating that the case graphs here are likely to go up soon.
Public health experts have all along been cautioning that it would take several peaks and troughs before the epidemic wanes and that the local body elections and the Sabarimala pilgrimage would be the two main triggers which could result in another peak in the State
The State-wide doubling time of cases has been going up steadily for the past two or more months and it has gone up from 69 days last week to 77 days now, indicating that it is taking longer time for the virus to spread to new persons.
However, the doubling time came down, though marginally, this week in Wayanad, Malappuram, Idukki, Kottayam and Pathanamthitta when compared with last week. The doubling time is the highest in Kasaragod at 172 days while it is the lowest at 42 days in Idukki.
Similarly, when the TPR has remained around 9-11% in the State for a while now, it is the highest in Malappuram at 15.8%. Last week, this was 17.1%. When compared with the previous week, the TPR has gone up in Idukki (8.4% to 9.3%), Kannur (8.3% to 8.4%), Kottayam (9.2% to 10.8%), Kozhikode (10.6% to 11.8%), Wayanad (8.3% to 10.7%) and Palakkad (9.5% to 10.4%).
Kerala reported 5,375 new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday, when 58,809 samples were tested in the past 24 hours, taking the State’s cumulative case burden to 6,08,357 cases.
The test positivity rate was 9.14%.
With the State again reporting more recoveries–6,151 cases–than new cases, the active case pool of the State came down further to 61,092 cases. So far, a cumulative 5,44,864 recoveries have been reported in the State.
Another 26 deaths were added to the official COVID tally of the State on Tuesday, taking the State’s cumulative COVID toll to 2,270.
Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Thrissur and Kozhikodde reported four deaths each, Ernakaulam, Malappuram, Kannur and Kottayam two each while Wayanad and Alappuzha reported one death each.
Official figures put the the number of critically ill COVID patients currently being treated in ICUs in various hospitals in the State at 849, with 223 of them requiring ventilator support.
Of the 5,375 new cases reported on Tuesday, 5,261 are locally acquired infections, with the authorities unable to find the epidemiological links in 617 cases. The number of healthcare workers who contracted the infection is 48. A total of 114 cases were reported to have a history of travel outside the State.
Among districts, Malappuram reported 630 cases, Kottayam 585, Kozhikode 516, Ernakulam 504, Thiruvananthapuram 404, Kollam 349, Palakkad 323, Pathanamthitta 283, Alappuzha 279, Kannur 222, Idukki 161, Wayanad 150 and Kasaragod 83 cases.
