Both the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI-M]-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) are keeping their fingers crossed as the countdown begins for counting of votes of the State Assembly elections on Sunday.
Whatever be the outcome, it will certainly have transformative implications on leaders and the political parties they are leading. The re-election of the incumbent Left-led coalition regardless of its five-year conduct in office will strengthen the plausibility of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan becoming much more of a competent leader than V.S. Achuthanandan, who was at the helm during 2006-2011.
Mr. Vijayan will be an overmastering force in the party just as he tactically vanquished his rivals on an equal footing to him in the run-up to the polls. Also, making him the second Chief Minister to enjoy a continuum of power after C. Achutha Menon, whose two terms extended from November 1969 to March 1977.
In case of a defeat, Mr. Vijayan’s leadership within the party will be questioned, especially his style of functioning and impelling a norm to exclude two-time contestants, thereby denying tickets to five Ministers and benching over 30 of its sitting legislators. Then a strange turn of fate also awaits the tie-up between the Kerala Congress (M) and the Left alliance.
Whichever way the electorate goes, the Congress will undoubtedly see a rejig of its organisational set-up. A win will possibly eclipse the ‘A’ group in the party that is now being led by ageing leaders, according to Congress sources.
Leader of the Opposition Ramesh Chennithala along with AICC general secretary K.C. Venugopal may call the shots within the party in the State.
At the same time, the Congress will also be faced with feisty challengers, such as the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), within the coalition. In case of a reversal in the UDF’s electoral fortunes, it may also witness the exodus of its grass-roots workers and middle-rung activists to other parties, particularly the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
As for the BJP, the party has nothing to lose even if it fails to retain the lone Nemom constituency despite generating a lot of hullabaloo in the campaign. But it will be a setback for the State leadership.
A reason is that the Central leadership knows that the vote share of the party will be intact or even rise in the Assembly election. Besides, it has set its eyes on the 2024 Lok Sabha and 2026 Assembly polls in Kerala.
However, if the BJP manages to win a couple of seats and the polls throw up a hung Assembly, then the State is likely to witness political turbulence or a disruption in coalition politics, which its State and Central leaderships forsee.
