As new COVID-19 cases continue to be reported unabated, Karnataka is poised to touch seven lakh cases and witness 11,200 deaths by October 12, according to a study.
A study by Jeevan Raksha, an initiative by management consultant firm Proxima, and supported by Indian Medical Association (IMA) and Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), does not foresee any let up in the number of cases or deaths in the coming four weeks.
Earlier predictions
Jeevan Raksha’s forecasting module had met a fair degree of success in its earlier exercise last month when it predicted that Karnataka’s COVID-19 surge would reach 4.5 lakh cases and 6,700 deaths by September 12. “Our predictions were close. While number of cases in the State reached 4,40,411 cases, which was at 98% of our prediction, the number of deaths reached 7,067, which was at 105% of our prediction,” said Mysore Sanjeev, convener of Jeevan Raksha.
According to its “COVID-19: Trend Analysis and Projection” released on September 15, Jeevan Raksha predicts a rise in the number of COVID-19 cases to seven lakh and the number of deaths to 11,200 by October 12.
Mr. Sanjeev said the projection is an effort to help Union and State governments to examine and initiate necessary steps by effectively mobilising the required resources and achieve the core objective of reducing mortality.
Karnataka’s Test Positivity Rate (TPR) was 12.1% against the national average of 7.7% while the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) was 1.6%, a shade better than India’s 1.7%. A high TPR and low CFR indicates a “high spread of the virus, most cases in mild and very mild condition, pro-active action by local authorities,” the study said.
Across India
Jeevan Raksha also predicted that India’s COVID-19 positive case count will cross 75 lakh and the number of deaths will surpass 1,16,050 by October 12.
As part of its projection last month, the study had predicted that the number of cases in India would touch 46.71 lakh by September 12 while the actual cases were 46.57 lakh.
The number of deaths predicted by the study was 85,027 by September 12 while the actual deaths were 77,526.
