Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s statement that his deputy and Rashtiya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav will be the leader of the Mahagathbandhan for the 2025 Assembly polls has not been a huge surprise for the alliance’s political rival, the BJP, which says that this was “part of the deal” struck between Mr. Kumar and RJD chief Lalu Prasad before the alliance was finalised.
Speaking to The Hindu, former Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar and Rajya Sabha member Sushil Modi said the statement was just verbalising the deal that was struck. “This was part of the deal, where the leadership of the alliance was to be ceded to Mr. Tejashwi Yadav before the next Assembly polls, with Mr. Kumar doing national politics,” he said. Mr. Modi said he anticipated a merger of the Janata Dal (United) with the RJD soon, as, with a government with a combined tally of both parties at 125 out of 243 seats, the formation would be unassailable in terms of the anti-defection law.
Another BJP leader, who did not wish to be named, said his party was only “watching” the developments, as their own strategy was very clear. “If you look at the recent bypolls in Bihar, we have acquitted ourselves well, despite the seven-party alliance ranged against us. In fact if you look at the results of the Kurhani bypoll, which we won, it becomes clearer. Many JD(U) supporters, especially the Extremely Backward Classes, women, and even some parts of the Kurmi community voted for the BJP and are increasingly uncomfortable with the notion that the merger of the JD(U) with the RJD, or even the absence of Nitish from the pole position in State politics, will result in the disappearance of the distinct constituency carved by Mr. Kumar,” said the senior leader. In the Kurhani bypoll, the BJP claims, it got support from the EBCs and up to 40% support from even Kurmi (the community to which Mr. Kumar belongs) voters.
“We are holding our own, and getting traction among voters of the JD(U) who are uncertain and do not relish being in the fold of the RJD,” he added.
The possibility of the merger of the JD(U) with the RJD is also something the BJP hopes to profit by, anticipating that on the ground, there were several JD(U) leaders willing to jump to the other side.
Kushwaha’s stand
The discomfort with the thoughts of the JD(U) merging with the RJD has been very clearly articulated by former Union Minister and JD(U) parliamentary board chairperson, Upendra Kushwaha. “There are no talks of a merger. People must think how can it take place. The JD(U)‘s merger would be suicidal. Does someone take a suicidal step on their own?” said Mr. Kushwaha.
The Hindu also spoke to a JD(U) MLA who was currently opening negotiations with the BJP on jumping ship, “but only if the merger happens.”
“The merger would not be something I will be able to handle as there is very little complementarity in JD(U) and RJD voters in my constituency,” he said. While the BJP is the main option for him, however, he does point out that the State leadership of the BJP is not attractive and nowhere close to the Mahagathbandhan’s.
For the BJP, therefore, all this talk is an opportunity, and for the Janata Dal (U) leaders and workers, an anxious watch on which way the chips fall.
