As the United States and Israel sparred with Iran at the United Nations this week, India is walking a fine balance between emerging blocs in West Asia, say experts.
While on one hand, the government is strengthening its ties with the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia-led Sunni Arab states, on the other, Infrastructure Minister Nitin Gadkari gives a firm commitment on completing the Chabahar development project in Iran in 2018, and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj affirms India’s support for the Palestinian cause , calling it a “reference point” of India’s foreign policy.
“We are recognising the complexities of dealing with the Middle East, where there are no straight lines to choose from,” said P.R. Kumaraswamy, Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University. “We are basically reaching out to all countries there, with a view to seeing where they can help us.”
However, matters may escalate in October, as the U.S. is expected to announce whether it will continue to certify that Iran is in compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) multilateral nuclear deal. If the Trump administration refuses to certify and withdraws from the deal, Iran President Rouhani announced on Wednesday, Iran would respond “decisively and resolutely” indicating that the agreement would be in jeopardy. He also made a veiled reference to Mr. Trump as a “rogue newcomer.”
In his speech the day before, Mr. Trump had also called Iran a “rogue nation .”
As a result, India’s relations with Iran, including plans to invest $500 million in the Chabahar project, the $1.6 billion rail-line from Iran to Afghanistan, as well as about $9 billion in trade of which about half is in oil, could be impacted, especially if the U.S. increases pressure on New Delhi to reduce ties with Tehran, as it did in 2013 while negotiating the JCPOA.
“The Iranian role is seeking hegemony and disruptive to neighbouring states. Treating Iran as a normal player in the long term won’t be to [India’s] benefit. This will come to a head at some point,” cautioned Israeli scholar Jonathan Spyer from the Rubin Centre in Herziliya. He was in New Delhi to address the India Foundation.
“India is a big country, a large market and no one will want to push India to choose one side, but events may overtake everyone. Iran’s subversive tactics are not just about JCPOA, but other ways where it plays a divisive role, supports destabilising forces,” he told The Hindu , indicating Iran’s alleged support to Houthis in Yemen, Shia militia in Iraq and Syria, the Hezbollah and Palestinian groups.
When asked, Mr. Gadkari denied any pressure from the U.S . over the Chabahar deep water project. He said the government had “finalised orders” for infrastructure equipment out of an allocated $85.2 million “without any difficulty.” However, India’s oil imports from Iran have been in steady decline since 2016, and hit their lowest level in 18 months in August 2017, with bad blood between Tehran and New Delhi over Iran’s decision to award its Farzad-B oilfield to Russian company Gazprom.
