January has been a cruel month so far for the BJP as the dominant party in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Ally after ally, from the west, south and east, have registered their displeasure at its handling of allies. And with the talk of calling an early general election in the air, the complaints have become loud and bitter.
First off the block was the Shiv Sena. It had declared that it would go it alone in the 2019 general elections and the subsequent Assembly polls.
Next it was the turn of Telugu Desam Party chief and Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh N. Chandrababu Naidu to castigate the BJP for not adhering to “mitra dharma” or the rules of coalition politics.
In Bihar, smaller allies like the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) and Jiten Manjhi-led Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM) seem to be drifting away, and rumoured to be enroute to joining the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). RLSP organised a human chain on the issue of education, so no BJP or Janata Dal (U) leaders participated. But there was a sizeable presence of RJD leaders.
All this, of course, begs the question just what is going on within the NDA. According to a senior leader of an NDA constituent party, such murmurs were inevitable for two reasons.
“One, in all these States, the BJP’s local unit has ambitions of expansion and has made some headway. In Bihar, the RLSP and HAM are of course upset at being ignored. The second reason is, quite simply, that the BJP does not seem to care for their allies. In the last three-and-a-half years, have the presidents of the NDA parties been invited for even a cup of tea at 7, Lok Kalyan Marg?”
The Shiv Sena is fighting a battle for relevance in Maharashtra, where the BJP is eating into its space and does not need it to run its government in the State.
In Andhra Pradesh, Mr. Naidu, having made tall promises about what he would do with his State, finds himself hamstrung by lack of funds and a local BJP unit that seems to be suddenly cosying up to his arch rival Y. Jagan Mohan Reddy.
The year 2018, with its endless electoral calendar, is possibly the best time for disgruntled allies to express their anger and jockey for position.
States like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where a large number of BJP seats were won in 2014, are to go to polls.
Indications are that the BJP will have to work hard to win the three States, especially Rajasthan. “The confidence of 282 [Lok Sabha seats] will be shaken, and that should reinforce coalition dharma,” said the leader. A lot, it seems, hangs on the results of December 2018.
