Events last week have provided a template within which the upcoming Gujarat Assembly elections are to be framed. Even as the Congress made moves to consolidate a social and political coalition against the BJP by announcing that Alpesh Thakore, a leader of the Other Backward Classes, will join its ranks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speeches at various public meetings in the State point to the BJP sticking to the issue of Gujarati asmita , or pride, to combat the coalition.
“Gujarat has always been an eyesore for this party [Congress]. History is witness to the way this family and this party treated Sardar Patel, his daughter Maniben Patel, Morarji Desai, Babubhai Jashbhai Patel and even Madhavsinh Solanki, who won them the highest number of 149 seats in the State. In every way, this family and this party have hated Gujarat,” Mr. Modi said at a public meeting in Gandhinagar last Tuesday.
On Sunday, at another public meeting in the State, he said the UPA government at the Centre had been inimical to the State’s interests, and as Chief Minister, he had to struggle against that attitude.
Successful formula
As strategies go, both the BJP and the Congress are sticking to tried and tested approaches. Past elections have shown that the Congress does badly when it goes head-to-head against any kind of regional sub-nationalism, or even against the persona of Prime Minister Modi, who has managed a close identification between himself and Gujarati pride. As a meta narrative, this has worked very well for the BJP in the past. But it does not mean that the details are being overlooked.
“Alpesh Thakor, Jignesh Mevani [who led the movement against Dalit atrocities in Una] and Hardik Patel are yet untapped electorally. Therefore it is difficult to assess what effect this attempted consolidation with the Congress will have on the polls. Two key aides of Hardik Patel have joined the BJP too,” a senior BJP leader said.
The party feels that he hold of Mr. Thakor, Mr. Mevani and Mr. Patel as community leaders is yet to be tested.
Desertions
“More than 11 MLAs left the Congress after the recent Rajya Sabha polls, including those heading important cooperative societies such as Amul. Shankar Sinh Vaghela’s exit is also a blow. This is more significant than untested leaders joining the Congress,” a senior leader said.
A broad narrative framed between Gujarati pride and development work is being picked with attempts to repair any negativity around issues such as the Goods and Services Tax regime that has traders in the State in an uproar. Of the 27 goods and services whose rates were tweaked recently by the GST council, eight pertained to products related to Gujarat.
Mr. Modi, too, said the GST regime was a bipartisan effort and that his government was, in fact, in the process of easing the difficulties faced by traders in the State and elsewhere.
Ticket distribution will be an important factor. A senior party leader said many sitting MLAs — up to 40% — may not be fielded again to combat the anti-incumbency factor. As the battle for Gujarat begins, BJP prepares to pull out all the stops.
