The story so far: At a meeting this week, leaders of the European Union (EU) agreed to start negotiations for Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had vowed to oppose this move, allowed the decision to go through. But he blocked the EU’s €50 billion aid package for Ukraine.
What is Hungary’s stance on aid to Ukraine?
Prime Minister Orban, a right-wing leader, is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. In April 2022, after his re-election, he named Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky as one of the “opponents” he had to overcome. He believes that the regime in Ukraine is beset by corruption, and that the country is not yet ready for EU membership. He believes Ukraine should first serve as a strategic partner of the EU for some time before membership talks can begin.
He has been opposed to the financial package on the grounds that a non-EU member should not be getting such huge funds at a time when Hungary, an EU member-state, has been denied funds that were specifically allocated for it.
What is the backdrop of the latest move?
The EU had frozen substantial funds earmarked for Hungary, on the grounds that Hungary had violated EU norms on law and order and judicial independence. Analysts believe Hungary has sought to use its veto power on Ukraine’s long-term funding as well as formal membership talks as a bargaining chip to get EU to unfreeze these funds. In fact, a day before the summit meeting, the EU released €10 billion of frozen funds to Hungary — a move that was widely seen as a capitulation to Mr. Orban’s blackmail. The European Commission, however, has maintained that the timing was a mere coincidence and the funds were released in response to Hungary meeting EU’s demands on judicial reforms.
In what is seen by many as a quid pro quo, during the meeting of the 27 EU leaders, Mr. Orban, at the urging of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, left the room when it was time to raise objections, allowing the remaining 26 to seal the decision on starting official talks on Ukraine’s EU accession.
Does this mean Ukraine’s EU membership is a done deal?
Not really. Accession to the EU is a long-drawn process, where a country has to fulfil several governance-related and other requirements. If we exclude the six founding members, on an average, it took about nine years for each of the other 21 members to gain membership. Mr. Orban has said that Hungary will have plenty of opportunities to disrupt or even derail Ukraine’s membership process.
For Ukraine’s membership to go through, it will have to be approved by the Parliaments of all the EU nations, including Hungary’s. Mr. Orban seems to have calculated that he doesn’t stand to lose much by letting the accession talks begin so long as he can use the leverage afforded by his veto power to extract concessions for Hungary from the EU.
How will the EU now provide aid to Ukraine?
If Mr. Orban does not relent, then the EU could find a way around by creating a trust comprising the other 26 members. This would be a more tedious process and could cause delays in reaching the funds to a desperate Ukraine. Mr. Putin, however, wouldn’t mind the delay as Russian forces continue to strengthen their positions at the frontline.
Why is the EU aid package important for Ukraine?
President Zelensky is extremely worried about war fatigue eroding support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russia, especially in the U.S. Reports indicate that a substantial number of Republican lawmakers — and their followers — are losing patience with the lack of military successes, and are concerned about funnelling American tax payer dollars into a conflict that is increasingly looking like a war their side cannot win. The Republicans want President Joe Biden to tighten immigration policy in exchange for their support on approving a further $61 billion of aid to Ukraine.
Presidential elections are due next year, and a victory for Donald Trump and his ‘America First’ foreign policy could bring an end to the generous U.S. aid for the Ukrainian war effort. This leaves a relatively small window for Mr. Zelensky to not only obtain whatever financial aid he can but also secure binding political support —such as membership of the EU, NATO, and so on — which would more readily translate into financial and military aid.
