When Donald Trump launched his 2024 presidential campaign after a disappointing midterm election for Republicans, his trajectory was something of a mystery. However, seven days before Iowa's kick-off caucuses, his standing among the GOP faithful is hardly in doubt.
Voters, campaign operatives and even some of the candidates on the ground overwhelmingly agree that the Republican former President is the prohibitive favourite heading into the January 15 caucuses — whether they like it or not.
“Everybody sees the writing on the wall,” said Angela Roemerman, a 56-year-old Republican from Solon, Iowa, as she waited for former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley to arrive for a weekend rally at Field Day Brewing Co. in North Liberty. “It’s a little depressing," Ms. Roemerman said, as her order of tortilla chips arrived, lamenting “all the drama” surrounding Mr. Trump. "We don't need another four years. But Mr. Trump’s going to win.”
Just beneath all the perceived certainty about Mr. Trump's victory, however, lies serious risks for the front-runner. He continues to fuel sky-high expectations, despite questions about the strength of his voter-turnout operation and stormy weather forecasts that could dissuade supporters from showing up.
Few believe such issues will lead to a straight-up loss next week in Iowa, but in the complicated world of presidential politics, a win is not always a win. Should Mr. Trump fail to meet expectations with a resounding victory in Iowa, he would enter New Hampshire and South Carolina much more vulnerable.
Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis continue to pour millions of dollars into Iowa advertising as they cross the State, backed by well-funded allies with robust get-out-the-vote operations, in a relentless effort to narrow Mr. Trump's margin of victory.
At the same time, Mr. Trump's team privately acknowledges that it has cut back on its door-knocking, get-out-the-vote operation heading into the final week. They insist they can ensure his loyalists show up on caucus day more effectively by relying on rallies, phone calls and a peer-to-peer text message programme. That's even as allies of DeSantis and Haley push ahead with traditional get-out-the-vote plans at voters' doorways.
Momentum was building for Haley, says New Hampshire Governor
New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, who has endorsed Ms. Haley and spent the weekend campaigning with her across Iowa, conceded that “it will be tough” to beat Mr. Trump in the State.
“There’s obviously a strong implication Trump’s gonna likely win the Iowa caucus,” Sununu told The Associated Press, even as he insisted momentum was building for Ms. Haley that will show up more clearly in New Hampshire's Jan. 23 first-in-the-nation primary. “In New Hampshire, she clearly has a chance to do something no one thought was possible, which was to beat Trump in an early state."
Aware of the risks, the former President’s team is scrambling to lower expectations for Iowa. In recent days, Mr. Trump's advisers have been quick to remind reporters — at least privately — that no Republican presidential candidate has won a contested Iowa caucus by more than 12 points since Bob Dole in 1988.
The Trump campaign sees Dole's margin as the floor for Mr. Trump's victory, a senior adviser told The Associated Press, requesting anonymity to share internal discussions. The adviser described the mood of the campaign as confident but not comfortable, acknowledging questions about the strength of rival organisations and, as always, the weather, which could affect turnout if there is snow or extreme cold.
Impact of cold weather
Heavy snowfall, blowing and drifting snow and dangerous travel conditions are expected on Monday and Tuesday of this week to be followed by frigid temperatures that could drift below 0 degrees (-17 degrees Celcius) by caucus day.
The weather has already forced the Trump campaign to cancel multiple appearances by Arkansas Governor Sarah Sanders and her father, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who had been scheduled to court Iowa voters on Mr. Trump's behalf Monday.
Ever defiant, Mr. Trump projected confidence as he raced across the state for a series of “commit to caucus” rallies over the weekend before returning to his Florida estate. He's scheduled to return to Iowa on Wednesday for a Fox News town hall.
At every stop over the weekend, he talked about his dominant standing in the polls. He's also frequently invoked claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him by voter fraud, a claim refuted by the courts and his own administration but one that fuelled a attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Still, weather is the more immediate concern heading into the final full week of campaigning in Iowa.
Mr. Trump told an audience of more than 2,000 in Clinton on Jan. 6 night that his aides told him he shouldn’t worry about cold weather, although his opponents probably should. "The other side will never vote, because they don’t have any enthusiasm,” Mr. Trump said. Stoking the crowd, he added, “We won’t lose one vote, because our people, they’re going to walk on glass.”
That's not to say there's no risk. “The biggest risk is you say, you know, ‘We’re winning by so much, darling, let’s stay home and watch television,’" he said the night before in Mason City. "And if enough people do that, it’s not going to be pretty.”
Trump leads, according to poll
Indeed, Mr. Trump has a loyal base of support but he's also targeting a significant number of first-time caucus participants who don't necessarily know where to go next Monday or how the complicated caucus process works. The events feature a series of speeches and votes that can span multiple hours, and in many cases, they're not held at regular polling locations.
A Des Moines Register poll conducted in December found that 63% of likely first-time Republican caucus participants say Mr. Trump is their first choice. One of the first-time participants may be William Caspers, a 37-year-old farmer from Rockwell, Iowa. He said he had never attended a political event of any kind before Mr. Trump's Mason City event on Jan. 5.
Trump’s campaign machinery
While he's supporting Mr. Trump “100%” in 2024, he said he was only “pretty sure” he would caucus for him. “Where is it going to be? Where do I go? I’m kind of confused about that,” Mr. Caspers said. He noted that he was in the bathroom when a caucus explainer video played on the big screen at the front of the event hall. Several hundred other voters were still in line outline during the video. “So, the caucus is this Monday?" he asked an AP reporter, who clarified that it was Jan. 15.
Not far away, Jackie Garlock, of nearby Clear Lake, was wearing a white hat indicating her status as one of Mr. Trump's “caucus captains.” The campaign has promoted its efforts to recruit and train hundreds of such captains, who will represent the campaign within a given precinct on Monday night.
Ms. Garlock said she only briefly attended one virtual training on Zoom, which she described as largely a pep rally. She also said that she's not particularly good or experienced at political organising. But she's not worried. “I have a lot of confidence,” she said of Mr. Trump's chances next week as she scanned the crowded North Iowa Events Center. “I just look at the number of people who are here and I think, how can they all be wrong?”
Big money spent on attack advertisements
Meanwhile, Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis are spending money to attack each other on Iowa television, although Ms. Haley has had a decided spending advantage in the caucus' final days. Overall, Ms. Haley and her allies are on pace to spend more than $15 million in Iowa television advertising this month alone; while DeSantis' team is spending less than $5 million, according to an AP analysis of data from the media tracking firm AdImpact.
Virtually none of their attack advertisements are directed at Mr. Trump. That's even as Ms. Haley's primary super PAC is running multiple ads describing DeSantis as “a dumpster fire," and one of Mr. DeSantis' evolving group of super PACs recently launched an ad campaign calling Ms. Haley “Tricky Nikki.”
Mr. Trump and his allies are spending nearly $10 million this month in Iowa. And he's shifted some of his attacks away from Mr. DeSantis and toward Ms. Haley. But he's also investing in ads targeting Democratic President Joe Biden, his likely general election opponent.
Of all the candidates on the ground in Iowa this week, only DeSantis is predicting an outright victory over Mr. Trump. He moved his entire campaign leadership to the state in recent months and visited each of Iowa's 99 counties.
"You’re going to see an earthquake on Jan. 15,” DeSantis told dozens of supporters at a downtown bar in Dubuque.
