The story so far: Three months after Russia started the invasion of Ukraine, its troops are making slow but steady advances in the eastern Donbas region. Russia has faced stiff resistance from the Ukrainian troops from day one and the crisis has snowballed into a larger security contest between Moscow and the West, which has pumped money and weapons to Ukraine. With no peace talks on the table and neither side showing any signs of compromise, the war is likely to grind on for many more weeks, if not months.
What’s the current status of the invasion?
Russia started the war on February 24 on three fronts — its troops moved in from the Belarussian border in the north, from the separatists-controlled parts of Donbas in the east and from the Russian-controlled Crimean peninsula in the south. While announcing his “special military operation”, President Vladimir Putin said “demilitarisation and de-Nazification” of Ukraine were his goals. It’s anybody’s guess whether Russia wanted to capture Kyiv and bring in a regime change. But clearly, at least as part of their war strategy, the Russians sought to envelope Kyiv, while its troops attacked cities in the east and south. While its forces made gains in the east and south, they faced stiff resistance from the Ukrainian forces in the north and northeast. As its advances slowed down, Russia pulled back troops from around Kyiv, ending its efforts to envelope the city, and retreated from Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city which lies about 40 km from the Russian border, and focussed its resources on the east.
The southern city of Kherson had fallen into Russian hands in the initial days of the war. From the south, Russian troops have moved towards the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia, taking over the eponymous nuclear plant, the largest in Europe. In the eastern Donbas region, the Russians have taken almost all major cities. They took Mariupol, a Sea of Azov port city known for its steel plants, last month after a prolonged siege. They took Lyman in Luhansk last week while advancing towards Severodonetsk, the easternmost city in Ukrainian hands.
As of Monday, pro-Russia media have claimed, quoting Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, that the Russians have seized Severodonetsk. The Ukrainian authorities have contested this claim, but independent reports confirm that the Russians have entered the city. Faced with the likelihood of being encircled in the east, Ukrainians troops hinted last week that they might make a tactical retreat to bolster their defences elsewhere.
What does Russia want?
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that the “liberation” of Donbas was Russia’s “unconditional priority”. Donbas, the traditional industrial region that has historical ties with Russia, encompasses Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (now, self-declared Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, which were recognised by Mr. Putin as sovereign states before ordering the invasion). Russia has already taken almost all of Luhansk.
Severodonetsk (it was the capital of the Ukrainian-controlled parts of Luhansk), is the only major city where there is still Ukrainian presence in the oblast (province) and all reports indicate that the city would be in complete Russian control within days, if it hasn’t already fallen.
Russia and the separatists it backs have also taken a sizeable part of Donetsk, including Mariupol, which allowed Moscow to establish a land bridge from the Russian mainland to Crimea along the coast of the Sea of Azov. Mariupol was also the headquarters of the Azov Battalion, the neo-Nazi group that had been integrated into the Ukrainian armed forces. The capture of the city serves the Russian claims of “de-Nazifying” Ukraine.
If Mr. Lavrov should be trusted, Russia is likely to shift its focus to the Ukraine-controlled parts of Donetsk once Severodonetsk is fully in its control. But there’s no clarity on whether Russia would stop the war even if it captures the whole of Donbas. There are conflicting signals from Russian leadership. According to Mr. Putin, “demilitarisation and deNazification” are the goals, which are open for interpretation. As per Mr. Lavrov, “liberation of Donbas” is the priority.
In April, Maj Gen Rustam Minnekayev, a senior Russian commander, said Russia wanted the whole of Ukraine’s east and south. If Mr. Minnekayev is right, Russia wants to take, besides Donbas, Kharkiv in the northeast and Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhya and Odesa in the south, which would turn Ukraine into a landlocked country. Ukraine has already asked for more weapons, including artillery and long-range rockets, from the West, apparently to prepare for the coming battles. The U.S. is sending them the Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) — both light, flexible, long-range rocket launchers. All these suggest that there is no immediate plan from any side to end the war.
Haven’t the sanctions hit the Russian economy?
They have. Russia’s economy is expected to contract this year. But the sanctions and their impact on the economy are unlikely to influence the Kremlin’s strategic thinking for a number of reasons.
First, the war and the western response to it appear to have bolstered Mr. Putin’s standing in Russia. According to the Levada Centre, an independent research firm, as of April, 82% Russians approve of his presidency. He doesn’t face any immediate threat to his grip on power in Russia. Second, despite the sanctions, the Russian economy doesn’t face any imminent collapse. The rouble, which U.S. President Joe Biden threatened to run into “rubble”, is one of the best performing currencies this year. The sanctions also jacked up commodity prices, especially that of oil and gas, which is helping Russia, a major oil and gas exporter. Europe remains dependent on Russian gas — close to 40% of its gas requirements are met through imports from Russia. Its attempts to diversify its gas imports by buying LNG from countries such as Qatar and Libya have so far been not successful.
Also, the Russian blockade of Ukraine’s sea ports is threatening to send food prices soaring which could impact global food supplies and food security. This has prompted several European countries to reach out to Mr. Putin, seeking a solution. Moreover, countries outside the Western alliances have not joined the sanctions, which means Russia is not as isolated internationally as the West claims it is. So Mr. Putin appears to be ready to fight a war of attrition, which could hurt the global economy further.
Is there a peace process?
Both Russia and Ukraine have held multiple rounds of talks, in Minsk as well as in Istanbul, since the war began, but there has been no breakthrough. In the last round of the Istanbul talks, Ukraine had apparently made a peace proposal.
According to media reports, Ukraine proposed a 15-year consultation period for Crimea (during this period Kyiv won’t contest Russia’s control of the peninsula) and direct talks between Presidents Volodymyr Zelensky and Mr. Putin on the status of Donbas. As a “goodwill gesture”, the Russians quickly announced that they were withdrawing troops from the outskirts of Kyiv. But soon after the Istanbul talks were concluded, video footage surfaced showing bodies in Bucha, the northern city that the Russians vacated. U.S. President Joe Boden accused Russia of committing “genocide” in Ukraine. The peace process collapsed.
Now, Mr. Zelensky has once again urged direct talks with Mr. Putin, but Russia, which stated in April that the talks were “at a dead end”, says “Ukraine is not serious about ending the conflict”. In between, the war continues and Ukraine keeps losing territories.
- Russia controls from the south, the city of Kherson and the nuclear plant near Zaporizhzhia. In the eastern Donbas region, they have taken almost all major cities including Mariupol. They are currently advancing towards Severodonetsk.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that the “liberation” of Donbas was Russia’s “unconditional priority”. If Mr. Lavrov should be trusted, Russia is likely to shift its focus to the Ukraine-controlled parts of Donetsk once Severodonetsk is fully in its control.
- Both Russia and Ukraine have held multiple rounds of talks, since the war began, but there has been no breakthrough. Russia stated in April that the talks were “at a dead end”, adding that “Ukraine is not serious about ending the conflict”.
