The story so far: Since his impressive win in the Maldivian presidential election in September 2023, President-elect Mohamed Muizzu has emphasised his desire to send Indian troops out of the country, while pledging to safeguard the Maldives’ independence and sovereignty. In an indication of his priorities after assuming office, he told one media outlet that he would return Indian troops on “day one”. His stance stems from the main opposition bloc’s ‘India Out’ campaign, mounted against outgoing President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, for his foreign policy of ‘India first’.
Is there Indian military presence?
According to the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF), 75 Indian military personnel stay in the Maldives to maintain and operate the Dornier aircraft and two helicopters gifted to the Maldives by the Government of India. The helicopters have been present in the Maldives for over a decade, predating the term of the outgoing President Mr. Solih, who rose to presidency in 2018, beating President Abdulla Yameen (Mr. Muizzu was fielded by the opposition coalition led by President Yameen). The Dornier aircraft was presented to the Maldives in 2020, following a request from Male. The choppers and the aircraft are used for a range of functions such as medical evacuation, search and rescue operations, training, surveillance, and patrol.
Why is Mr. Muizzu opposed to them?
For Mr. Muizzu, his former boss President Yameen, and the political camp they represent, relations with India remain a sensitive matter. The Yameen administration’s pro-China tilt is no secret, and during his term from 2013 to 2018, Maldives-India relations were particularly strained, more so after Mr. Yameen’s insistence that India take back the helicopters it gifted.
While Mr. Muizzu maintains that he is “pro-Maldives” first, and that he will not allow Indian, Chinese, or any other country’s military presence in the Indian Ocean archipelago, he has on many occasions sought to highlight the benefits of Chinese assistance to the Maldives, without commenting on Male’s debt obligations, including to China.
Mr. Muizzu’s frequent pledges to remove any Indian military presence in the Maldives appear to have two obvious reasons in the current context. One, most of the international media, which framed the Maldives elections as a referendum on India and China — much to the frustration of many Maldivian political observers — tend to quiz the incoming President on his stance on the geopolitical rivalry, more than on any other domestic issue. Two, in repeating his position on the removal of Indian boots from Maldivian soil, Mr. Muizzu is able to demonstrate consistency with his own pre-poll pledge to supporters. It is only after he assumes office in November, that his government’s concrete foreign policy moves will be known.
While Mr. Muizzu will be under pressure to deliver on his pledge, handling the Indian military question is not the only task awaiting him. The Maldives is facing a major economic challenge, as it prepares to pay about $570 million annually in 2024 and 2025 to service external debt. In 2026, Mr. Muizzu’s government will have to service a record $1.07 billion in external debt, according to the World Bank. Mitigating the looming debt crisis may prove rather challenging without the cooperation of India and China, the Maldives’s main lenders and development partners.
What are India’s interests?
In the past four years, India has emerged as the Maldives’s main security and economic partner, committing $1.4 billion towards the socio-economic development needs of Maldivians. The Indian establishment sees its own security interests closely tied to the Indian Ocean island nation, amid its concerns of a growing Chinese presence in the region.
Maldives is a member of the ‘Colombo Security Conclave’, that began as a trilateral initiative with India and Sri Lanka, and later included Mauritius, for maritime cooperation in the region. “Our national security is deeply intertwined with our collective security aspirations in this region,” National Security Adviser Ajit K. Doval said in March 2022, addressing the fifth NSA-level talks of the Conclave held in the Maldives.
- Since his impressive win in the Maldivian presidential election in September 2023, President-elect Mohamed Muizzu has emphasised his desire to send Indian troops out of the country, while pledging to safeguard the Maldives’ independence and sovereignty.
- The Maldives is facing a major economic challenge, as it prepares to pay about $570 million annually in 2024 and 2025 to service external debt. In 2026, Mr. Muizzu’s government will have to service a record $1.07 billion in external debt, according to the World Bank.
- While Mr. Muizzu maintains that he is “pro-Maldives” first, and that he will not allow Indian, Chinese, or any other country’s military presence in the Indian Ocean archipelago, he has on many occasions sought to highlight the benefits of Chinese assistance to the Maldives, without commenting on Male’s debt obligations, including to China.
