The story so far: The all-powerful Pakistani Army appears to have withdrawn from its “coalition” with Prime Minister Imran Khan, leaving him to face the March 25 no-confidence vote on his own steam. Several members of the National Assembly, known as MNAs, have already deserted the ranks of the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) even as Mr. Khan plans a massive show of strength in Islamabad.
Why is the “hybrid arrangement” between Mr. Khan and Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa collapsing and threatening the survival of the PTI government?
The warmth between Mr. Khan and Gen. Bajwa evaporated after the Prime Minister showed a streak of independence when the Army wanted the removal of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate chief Lt. General Faiz Hameed in October 2021. In theory, the choice of appointing the director-general of the ISI lies with the Prime Minister, but the Army chief is usually able to influence the appointment. Finally, Mr. Khan did the unprecedented in “interviewing” three candidates for the ISI chief’s job and signed off on Lt. Gen. Nadeem Anjum — the man originally appointed by Gen. Bajwa himself.
Previously, the regular meetings between the Prime Minister and the Army Chief were a signal that “all was well” between the country’s permanent and political establishment as they navigated the fortunes of a new governance arrangement different from those run by the Sharifs and the Zardari clan. Mr. Khan himself was effusive in his praise for the Army chief. It is no secret in Pakistan that Gen. Bajwa had helped Mr. Khan win the 2018 general elections.
The various moves by the PTI government— both on the financial and foreign policy front — would have been carefully watched by Gen. Bajwa and the rest of the army brass to assess whether these were in line with the institutional interests of the khakis.
For all his belligerence, what are the chances of Mr. Imran Khan continuing as Prime Minister?
Mr. Khan has been attacking the Opposition relentlessly. His remarks against Opposition leaders like Asif Ali Zardari, Shehbaz Sharif and Fazal-ur-Rehman have been scathing — mixed with threats to send all of them to jail. He hasn’t spared the Army either. A day after the Army spokesman said the institution had “nothing to do with politics”, the Prime Minister said at a public meeting on March 12, “Humans either side with good or evil. Only animals remain neutral.” The Prime Minister also said that the Army chief Gen. Bajwa had asked him not to call the Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam (F) leader Fazal-ur-Rehman “diesel”, but said it was not him (Mr. Khan), but the people that had dubbed him “diesel”. (Mr. Rehman was accused of smuggling diesel for profit to Afghanistan during the 1990s).
All the fighting talk may not help Mr. Khan in the game, as 12 of his MNAs have openly declared that they will vote against him in the no-confidence vote.
A magic number of 172 is required in the 342-member National Assembly.
With several MNAs coming out openly against the Prime Minister, the Opposition now has the numbers to dethrone Mr. Khan.
The stance of some of PTI’s allies should also be a matter of concern — most of them are known to swing to the Army’s tune.
What kind of political arrangement may come into existence if the PTI is ousted from government?
An Islamabad-based political analyst believes that Shehbaz Sharif, the current leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly, and president of the Pakistan Muslim Leage (PML-N), could be the new Prime Minister, with other groups like the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) becoming part of the government. The analyst was of the view that such a government could be of a temporary nature and would inevitably lead to fresh elections that are, in any case, due in 2023. The term of the current National Assembly ends in August 2023.
Who is the Army going to back this time around?
The inability of the PML-N and the PPP to keep step with the Army’s perceived needs and requirements led to the khakis propping up and placing Mr. Khan in the saddle after the 2018 general elections. It’s a bit of a secret as to how the Army manages the elections in Pakistan, but the fact remains that they have often managed this feat. In the past, the Army has funnelled money to political groups of their choice. In the current scenario, they think that Mr. Shehbaz Sharif, brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, could be their best bet. A three-time Prime Minister, Mr. Nawaz Sharif is now living in political exile in London. He is a better critic of the Army and remembers his ouster twice at the hands of the military establishment — in 1993 and in 1999. In 2017, Mr. Sharif was removed as Prime Minister following a Supreme Court order. His brother, the junior Sharif, is more amenable to working with the Army.
Will the no-confidence vote be smooth?
No elected government has ever been removed from office through a no-confidence vote — the Army and the Supreme Court have played this role. If Mr. Khan’s government falls, this will be a first for Pakistan. The role of the Speaker and the mass mobilisation promised by the Prime Minister could play the role of spoiler in the conduct of the no-confidence motion.
