There is an increased risk of communal violence around the elections in India if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stresses Hindu nationalism, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats said in a statement titled ‘Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community’ on Tuesday.
Mr. Coats testified along with CIA Director Gina Haspel, FBI Director Christopher Wray and other intelligence chiefs before the Senate’s Select Committee on Intelligence in connection with the intelligence community’s annual global risk assessment.
“BJP policies during [Narendra] Modi’s first term have deepened communal tensions in some BJP-governed States, and Hindu nationalist State leaders might view a Hindu-nationalist campaign as a signal to incite low-level violence to animate their supporters,” the report said, adding, “Increasing communal clashes could alienate Indian Muslims and allow Islamist terrorist groups in India to expand their influence.”
Regarding India-Pakistan ties, the assessment was that “continued terrorist attacks and cross-border firing in Kashmir have hardened each country’s position and reduced their political will to seek rapprochement”. Opportunities for improving ties will be constrained as a result of “political manoeuvring” around the elections, the report said.
India-China ties
The report also warned of tense ties between India and China. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Modi did not address border issues during their summit in 2018 (a reference to the Wuhan Summit), the report said, adding that “Misperceptions of military movements or construction might result in tensions escalating into armed conflict.”
The other assessments in the South Asia region include a stalemate in Afghanistan — where neither the government forces nor the Taliban will gain an advantage in 2019 if coalition support levels remain the same, the report said.
