The story so far: On October 16, the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will convene in Beijing for a week-long gathering. The 20th National Congress of the CPC, a once-in-five-year event, will mark sweeping changes in the leadership of China’s ruling party, amend the party’s constitution, and set the policy direction for the next five years, which will impact both China’s domestic and international policies.
What happens at a Party Congress?
The CPC convenes a national congress every five years. On September 25, the party announced it had chosen 2,296 delegates to attend this year’s event, representing various provinces, the military, different ministries, branches of government, and society. Choosing new leadership, amending the party constitution, and setting the main policy direction are the three broad objectives of a congress. The delegates “vote” on various resolutions, including amendments to the CPC’s constitution, and in theory, choose a new Central Committee, which in turn is supposed to “elect” a new Politburo and Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC). In practice, however, the amendments and personnel appointments are decided in advance by the party leadership, and not by the delegates who merely rubber stamp the decisions.
The party briefly considered the idea of “straw polls” to elect the Politburo and PBSC, which was introduced in 2012. It was, however, discarded by current General Secretary Xi Jinping at the 19th Congress in 2017, with the party later saying the process had been “corrupted”. Former security czar Zhou Yongkang and former Chongqing party chief Sun Zhengcai, who was once seen as a likely successor to Mr. Xi, were both purged and jailed for corruption by Mr. Xi. They were accused of “taking advantage of” the straw-poll system with “votes-soliciting corruption” activities. At the last congress in 2017, Mr. Xi abandoned the voting system and, according to the party, held “direct consultations” with 57 serving and retired party leaders to decide on personnel appointments. Mr. Xi is thought to have similarly done so ahead of this year’s congress.
What are the likely changes in leadership in the offing?
Perhaps the most significant outcome of any congress is the selection of the next PBSC, the party’s highest ruling body. Since 1992, congresses, every 10 years, have also selected a new party General Secretary, with Jiang Zemin taking the reins in 1992, Hu Jintao in 2002, and Xi Jinping in 2012. The 20th congress this year will mark a break in the 30-year precedent, with Mr. Xi, in 2018, ending term limits and the 10-year norm that had enabled smooth transitions of power, throwing into uncertainty how future successions in leadership will take place. There will, however, still be sweeping changes in the rest of the top leadership, including the 25-member Politburo and the 7-member PBSC, with leaders aged 68 and higher set to retire. Mr. Xi (69) is the lone exception to the “seven up, eight down” age rule. While at least two of the current PBSC will retire, four others, including second-ranked leader and Premier Li Keqiang, are under 68, so could continue. Mr. Li will, however, step down as Premier having served two terms. The composition of the next PBSC and the selection of the next Premier will serve as key indicators of the extent of Mr. Xi’s influence, reflected in how many of his appointees will assume top positions in the next leadership, or whether Mr. Xi will have to compromise with other power-centres in the party and accommodate their preferred appointees instead, such as officials close to the former leaders, Mr. Jiang and Mr. Hu. The Chinese military will also see a sweeping change in its top leadership, with the Central Military Commission, which Mr. Xi will continue to lead for another five years, set to choose new members.
What are the implications?
Besides the changes in personnel, the congress will pass amendments to the party constitution, and indicate the broad directions in policy for the next five years, which will be outlined by Mr. Xi in a speech to the congress. At the previous 19th Congress, Xi Jinping’s ideology, officially called “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”, was written to the constitution, elevating him on a par with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping as the only leaders with eponymous ideologies in the constitution. (only Mao and Mr. Xi were given those honours while in office). New amendments may formalise Mr. Xi’s status as a “core” of the party leadership. Recent pronouncements have called on the party to uphold what it calls “two establishes” — enshrining Mr. Xi’s “core status” and his ideology as a leading priority for the party. This will likely indicate even more centralisation of power in the coming term.
On the policy front, continuity, rather than change, is expected. The current Central Committee’s annual plenum in 2020 approved the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035, which emphasised some of Mr. Xi’s campaigns, including “common prosperity” to reduce inequality as well as address monopolies, particularly with regard to private firms in the tech sector, which has seen a crackdown; “dual circulation” to give more primacy to the domestic market as a driver of growth to complement external trade; and self-reliance in key strategic sectors. All three themes are likely to find mention at the congress. The biggest immediate concern for many in China, however, is whether Mr. Xi will decide to continue with his stringent “zero-COVID” policy or begin to finally consider an exit strategy, after the conclusion of the congress which is expected to hail the success of China’s pandemic response as one of Mr. Xi’s biggest legacies.
- The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, a once-in-five-year event, will mark sweeping changes in the leadership of the party, amend its constitution, and set the policy direction for the next five years
- The delegates “vote” on various resolutions, and in theory, choose a new Central Committee, which in turn is supposed to “elect” a new Politburo and Politburo Standing Committee
- The 20th congress this year will mark a break in the 30-year precedent, with President Xi Jinping, in 2018, ending term limits and the 10-year norm that had enabled smooth transitions of power, throwing into uncertainty how future successions in leadership will take place
