The story so far: On March 10, Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative People Power Party (PPP) defeated the Democratic Party (DP) candidate Lee Jae-myung in a close battle to emerge victorious in the South Korean presidential elections.
Yoon will take office on May 10 at the helm of the 300 member-strong National Assembly, which currently has a Democratic Party-majority, post the 2020 general elections. He succeeds Moon Jae-In (DP), who served from 2017 and is precluded from serving again because of a single 5-year presidential term limit.
Yoon gained the popular vote by a margin of less than 1%. While both candidates were viewed as unpopular, voter turnout was high at 77%, just shy of 2017’s record-setting 77.2%. A small chunk of the vote also went to Sim Sang-jung, the Justice Party candidate running on a platform of gender equality.
After his election, Yoon has already made some contentious moves. He proposes to move the presidency from its current location at the Blue House to the Defence Ministry premises in central Seoul, a decision estimated to cost $40 million which has been met with mixed responses from citizens and politicians across the aisle. The Defence Ministry is also reportedly not taken with the move since it means displacement for its staff.
The core priorities in 2022
DP candidate Lee, a former Mayor of Seongnam city and later Governor of GyeonggiProvince, ran on a progressive platform that included reducing housing-related taxes, a land tax, a carbon tax and an initial proposal to introduce a universal basic income.
Yoon rose to prominence as Prosecutor-General under the Moon administration, investigating charges of corruption against Moon’s cabinet officials, including former Justice Minister and Moon aide Cho Kuk. He also played a part in the 2017 impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye and in the investigation into supposed attempts by the National Intelligence Service to influence the 2012 elections.
In a first for presidential candidates, neither had been a legislator for the National Assembly and both were relative newcomers to politics and foreign policy.
The top priorities for voters in the recent elections were high housing costs, tepid economic growth and rising youth unemployment, set against the backdrop of increasing Covid-19 cases due to the Omicron variant
Youth unemployment has been a major issue, hovering at around 7%, with young graduates often describing South Korea as ‘Hell Joseon,’ where getting a job without connections is viewed as unlikely, and remaining in one demands overworking and a poor work-life balance. (Joseon was the name of an earlier dynasty that ruled Korea for five centuries.)
Another tipping point in the election was the rise of anti-feminist sentiment.
One of Yoon’s campaign pledges was to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family (Yeoseonggajokbu, or Ministry of Women and Family in Korean) once elected. This ministry spends a small chunk of its resources to further gender equality but mainly offers social services for families and children. Yoon has also blamed feminism for the country’s low birth rate. Another sore point has been the requirement that all men enlist in the military for 18 months before turning 30, which does not apply to women.
Yoon’s proposals resonated with young men disenchanted with feminism who allege reverse discrimination. 60% of the Gen Z male vote went to Yoon. By contrast, around 60% of the Gen Z female vote went to Lee.
Yoon and Lee also had distinct foreign policy differences.
Lee indicated that he would mostly follow the policy of strategic ambiguity towards China and the U.S., which formed the cornerstone of Moon’s approach. His approach to North Korea was also one of gradual diplomacy.
Yoon has already outlined a different foreign policy. He plans to make the U.S. a central part of South Korean policy with a comprehensive strategic alliance, while maintaining a “mutual respect”-based policy towards China.
He indicated that he will rebuild ties with Japan, and align himself more closely with the Quad comprising the U.S., Australia, Japan and India. In a perhaps telling move, the Quad leaders were among the first to congratulate Yoon after his election, along with the U.K.
He also outlined an ‘ABCD strategy’ toward Southeast Asia– advance human capital, build health security, connect cultures, and digitise Asian infrastructure– in place of Moon’s New Southern Policy, which centred people, peace, and prosperity.
His approach towards North Korea is poised to be tougher than that of his predecessor, prioritising human rights, expectations of reciprocity and pushing complete denuclearisation. He also signalled willingness to arm the Seoul metropolitan area with Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) batteries.
Brief snapshot of Korean democracy
South Korea is a young democracy and Asia’s fourth-largest economy- one of the Asian tigers. The Economist Intelligence Unit lists South Korea as one of five full democracies in the Asia and Australasia region (as of 2020.) But its progress towards democracy has been a slow and painful one.
The Republic of Korea formally came into being in August 1948, following 35 years of Japanese colonial rule, which ended with the Japanese surrender at the end of World War 2. Deliberations about the future of Korea among the Allied Forces culminated in a split into U.S.-supported South Korea and USSR- recognised North Korea along the 38th parallel. Attempts at reunification have failed, and the two nations are still technically at war.
South Korea moved through successive, increasingly authoritarian regimes from 1948 onwards, including a military coup in 1961. It achieved rapid industrialisation and economic development, termed the ‘Miracle on The Han River’ under the iron fist of President Park Chung-hee, the leader of the coup. Park ruled for 18 years until his assassination by long-time friend Kim Jae-Kyu in 1979.
During this time, simmering civilian opposition to military rule took the shape of several protests. A key event was the Gwangju uprising of 1980, where almost a quarter million protesters rallied against military rule and were violently suppressed.
However, the eventual transformation of South Korea into a more consolidated democracy happened in 1987, following widespread national protests known as the ‘June Struggle’. It led to the introduction of the so-called Sixth Republic that continues till today, signalling an end to authoritarian rule.
Despite this, South Korea’s struggles as a fledgling democracy are far from over. Corruption scandals have plagued every administration since 1987, including that of the current president- Moon Jae-In.
The outgoing President
Moon was elected in 2017 following the ouster of Park Geun-hye, the country’s first female President and daughter of Park Chung-hee.
Park faced criticism after the 2014 Sewol ferry incident in which nearly 300 passengers, mostly students, drowned while the captain and crewmates saved themselves. Subsequently, there were revelations that Park’s aide Choi Soon-Sil had an undue influence over the President and the ‘Candlelight Revolution’ in 2016-2017 brought about Park’s ouster. She was eventually impeached and convicted for corruption and abuse of power.
Moon Jae-In is the the son of North Korean refugees and is a human rights lawyer.
Moon attempted to reign in the influence of chaebols, or business conglomerates like Samsung and Hyundai, on the Korean economy, pushing for significant corporate governance reforms with a Bill in 2020. Proposed reforms included changing the amount of influence shareholders had in picking auditors and allowing for prosecution of chaebols by a number of entities if they violated fair trade rules.
He also helmed the effort to introduce a constitutional amendment that would change presidential term limits to two four year terms. His legacy also includes some labour reforms, national security reforms and an attempt to reign in the power of the public prosecutor’s office by re-vesting some of its powers in other agencies.
His handling of the Covid-19 outbreak was praised as setting an example for other developed nations, although South Korea is now facing surging cases due to the Omicron variant. The rise of Korean cultural heft in the world may also be associated positively with Moon’s administration, despite no direct influence, and Moon has often evoked natural pride in Korean cultural ambassadors.
But Moon also leaves with certain unfulfilled promises, including a thwarted attempt to broker peace with North Korea. His initial moves to reconcile with North Korea seemed to yield results, starting with an invitation to Kim Jong-un for the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics and a 2018 Singapore summit between Kim and Donald Trump. This cordiality did not last very long– Trump and Kim failed to reach any agreement in the 2019 Hanoi summit and the North Korean military blew up an inter-Korean liaison office in the demilitarised zone in 2020, before resuming missile testing that continues till date.
Moon’s administration was also rocked by real estate scandals and sexual harassment accusations against party leaders, including the Mayor of Seoul, Park Won-Soon.
Moon is set to leave office with a decent approval rating. However, South Korea has a history of succeeding administrations having prosecuted previous Presidents, and Yoon had pledged to look into irregularities in the Moon administration if he was elected.
