As Russian President Vladimir Putin lands in Delhi on Thursday for the annual India-Russia summit, all eyes will be on Washington’s reaction to the big ticket defence deal to be signed during his 24-hour visit.
On Friday, India and Russia are expected to conclude the deal for five S-400 missile systems estimated to cost over ₹39,000 crore (more than US $5 billion), which the U.S. has warned could attract sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) law that restricts defence purchases from Russia.
India has hoped that the U.S. administration would give it a “sanctions waiver,” but U.S. officials have given no clear signal they will. Last month, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on China as it started taking delivery of Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 systems.
Meanwhile, Indian officials made it clear they are going ahead with the deal, after a Kremlin spokesperson in Moscow announced the signing would take place on Monday. Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has cut short a visit to Central Asia, reportedly to return to Delhi in time for the signing.
On Wednesday, Air Chief Marshal B.S. Dhanoa said that once the Defence Ministry signs the contract, deliveries of the S-400 systems would begin in 24 months.
In October 2016, the two countries concluded Inter-Governmental Agreements (IGA) for S-400 systems and four stealth frigates after which the contract negotiations began to conclude a commercial contract. Diplomatic sources told The Hindu that the deal for the frigates is “in the pipeline”.
There are also several other defence deals expected to be discussed, including for Ak-103 assault rifles and Ka-226T utility helicopters. Of these, the deal for Ak-103 assault rifles is expected to be announced during the summit under which the rifles would be manufactured by the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) with technology transfer from Kalashnikov of Russia.
It is unclear how many of these deals would also attract U.S. sanctions under CAATSA, but a diplomatic official pointed out that the sanctions go into effect only when payments are made, rather than at the signing ceremony.
Mr. Putin will arrive on Thursday evening, and will attend a dinner hosted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. On Friday morning, he will hold further summit-level consultations at a “working breakfast” and then delegation level talks.
Both leaders are expected to witness the signing of at least 23 agreements, an official said, including Memoranda of Understanding for investment deals, a major agreement on space cooperation where Russia will assist India with its ‘Gaganyaan’ programme to put a human in space, an MoU for Road Transport and the Road Industry, as well as one for cooperation on MSMEs.
Officials say that nuclear power cooperation, one of the cornerstones of India-Russia ties, will be discussed, but the announcement of new sites for the next phase of Kudankulam reactors that has been awaited for several years is yet to be finalised due to “land acquisition issues.”
Both leaders will also meet with young Indian and Russian student “geniuses” who have excelled in studies as a part of an educational exchange programme.
Analysts said that the breadth of agreements including the S-400 deal during Mr. Putin’s visit is also a reiteration of India’s desire for “strategic autonomy” made by Mr. Modi in a speech this year. It comes a month after the inaugural 2+2 dialogue with the U.S., in which India signed the third foundational agreement — Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) — in addition to announcing several measures to operationalise the Major Defence Partner status, indicative of the difficult balance India hopes to maintain amidst deepening U.S.-Russia tensions.
