The tightening of the presidential race in a handful of key states has improved Republican candidate Donald Trump’s chances to victory, but only marginally, according to analyses of latest opinion polls. His Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton continues to hold a comfortable lead nationally and State-wise, indicating a formidable advantage for her in the electoral college arithmetic which will determine the victor.
Despite some recovery he has managed to make after the setbacks following multiple allegations of sexual assault, Mr. Trump needs to not only win all States that are toss-up, but also win several States that are now considered leaning towards Ms. Clinton, according to CNN and Realclear Politics, two platforms that regularly update their assessment.
She has a better chance
The CNN model that counts 20 States as solid Republican and 17 States as solid Democratic predicts only 157 guaranteed electoral college votes for Mr. Trump while Ms. Clinton starts with 200 assured votes. If 72 votes in six Democratic leaning States are added to her kitty, she is past the required number of 270 to win the presidency. Technically, even if she loses all battleground or toss up States, she can be the 45th President of the U.S.
In the Realclear model, Ms. Clinton has 252 electoral college votes, while Mr. Trump has only half of it, 126, after counting 160 votes in the toss-up category.
But don’t discredit him totally
However, Mr. Trump has made noticeable progress in several states in recent days, reducing his gap with Ms. Clinton and in one case, overtaking her in Florida by a narrow margin. In Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Michigan, he has reduced Ms. Clinton’s lead. But Ms. Clinton has managed to make dents in some traditionally Republican States such as Arizona and North Carolina, forcing Mr. Trump to struggle hard to defend these.
Ms. Clinton is not letting her guard down, and appeared with First Lady Michelle Obama in North Carolina on Thursday. Her campaign managers and surrogates reiterate the point that this is a “close election” to avoid complacency among her supporters. “..Pay no attention to the polls. Don’t forget, don’t get complacent, because we’ve got to turn people out,” she said earlier this week. She plans to return to Florida — which has 29 votes — again before the polling day.
Wikileaks expose no help
The daily dumping of emails written by Clinton aides by Wikileaks gives enough ammunition for Mr. Trump, but he appears increasingly desolate in the battlefield. Devoid of any significant support from the party, Mr. Trump has not been able to make Wikileaks emails into an election issue.
A new ad featuring President Barack Obama makes a final pitch for Ms. Clinton. “All the progress we’ve made these last eight years is on the ballot — civility is on the ballot, respect for women is on the ballot, tolerance is on the ballot, equality is on the ballot, justice is on the ballot. If you want to send a message in this election, send a message about who we are as the American people. Send a message by voting for Hillary Clinton,” he says in the ad titled “on the ballot.”
