China’s pledge to commit itself to a specific emissions reduction target for the first time has stirred debate this past week, even as the Copenhagen climate talks loom, only six days away.
China has proposed a voluntary reduction of the intensity of its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 per cent of 2005 levels, by 2020.
While the West has wondered if Beijing had upped the stakes with this commitment, other developing nations, including India, expressed worry over what a pledge from China could mean for their negotiating positions.
Would they, too, be expected to volunteer specific, quantitative targets?
Climate analysts here are asking an even more basic question — what do China’s commitments actually translate into on the ground?
Analysts say China’s target will require little in the course of new commitments to reduce the growth of its greenhouse gas emissions.
Since China has only pledged to reduce its emissions intensity — and not its net emissions — the world’s biggest polluter is set to continue releasing more greenhouse gases than ever before, only emitting them at a slower rate per unit of growth.
Analysts say the target represents more a business-as-usual growth trajectory which only reflects commitments to improve energy efficiency that China has already incorporated into its current Five-Year Plan. Michael Levi, director of the climate change programme at the Council on Foreign Relations, points out that China has, in its current plan, already committed to reducing energy intensity by 20 per cent between 2005 and 2010.
This, Mr. Levi says, translates into a 24 per cent carbon intensity target. To meets its new target, China would have to cut its carbon intensity by 11-15 per cent in the five-year periods between 2010 and 2020, which is even less demanding than its current target.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, developing nations like China are not obligated to commit to binding emissions cuts. But as the world’s biggest emitter, China has faced increasing pressure from the West to undertake specific mitigation actions.
On Tuesday, Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeld, part of a visiting delegation of Ministers from the European Union, called on Beijing to explain how its target would “differ from their business as usual pathway in regards to emissions.” One EU official said they had expected “at least 50 per cent” in carbon intensity reductions.
Chinese experts have strongly defended the plan as an ambitious one, and have hit out at the West for not doing enough to fulfil their obligations under the Bali Road Map to provide aid for developing nations.
Xie Zhenhua, China’s special envoy for climate change, said it would be difficult for China to reduce intensity as the economy’s efficiency continued to improve. Much of the current progress to reduce energy intensity by 20 per cent involved closing down inefficient plants. He said the plan would cut at least 1.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in five years.
Since the target is not absolute and only tied to future growth, it represented an opportunity for China to reorient the focus of its economy, said Yang Ailun, climate change campaigner of Greenpeace China. “We will definitely see more growth driven by renewable energy, which is a positive,” she said. China may even revise its targets with greater commitments from the EU or the United States, she added.
Another positive, analysts say, is that China has finally put down on paper a fixed target, even if it had already committed to it in its domestic plans. In terms of Copenhagen, it may not be a game-changer, but it has laid down a marker.
“All in all, good concept, disappointing initial proposal, but room for improvement,” was how Charlie McElwee, a Shanghai-based energy expert, put it. “It certainly doesn’t make a Copenhagen deal any less likely.”
