With a crucial referendum in which the U.K. will vote to remain or leave the European Union (EU) just two months away, both the ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ campaigns are noticeably subdued. The May 5th mayoral and assembly elections — including the hotly contested London mayoral seat — could be drawing away some of the focus. A string of recent issues ranging from the steel industry crisis to the Panama Papers has also deflected public attention.
However, the most important factor undermining the referendum campaign unity, whether in respect of the ‘Leave’ or ‘Remain’ campaigns, is the reluctance shown by traditional foes to shake hands on the referendum issue.
For example, Labour, the Scottish Nationalist Party and a large section of the trade union movement will find it galling to share a platform with the Conservatives in the ‘Remain’ campaign. In his statement on why he is supporting the ‘Remain’ side, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn underlined the legal protections and rights guaranteed by the EU to the working people, whereas Prime Minister David Cameron highlights the EU’s pro-business and investment policies.
On the ‘Leave’ side, militant sections of trade unions (the Trade Union and Socialist Coalition for example) have refused to campaign with their allies, who include the far-right United Kingdom Independence Party and the pro-Brexit Conservatives led by the current London Mayor, Boris Johnson.
Political commentator and former president of the prestigious Internet market-research firm YouGov, Peter Kellner, at a recent press conference with foreign journalists, underscored the forecasting uncertainties of this referendum.
“Six months ago I would have said there is a 90 per cent probability that people will vote to remain in the EU. I would now put the odds at 70 per cent. So it is significantly likely that people will vote to stay in rather than leave but the possibility of people voting to come out is no longer negligible, it is substantial, it may well rise further,” said Mr. Kellner.
According to him, the experience of past referendums would suggest that people make up their minds in the last two or three weeks, and as the date nears they opt for the status quo.
“Brexit campaigners have a problem: it is not just fear of change [in the electorate] but the fact that the Remain campaign does not have to prove that things will be worse outside the EU. All they have to say is that there is a risk that things might get worse. Whereas the Brexiteers have to convince people that ‘it will be fine’ and there isn’t any significant risk in Brexit. And that is quite a tough thing to say,” he said.
