The individual strength of all political parties is being tested in this year’s Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections. While the poll is essentially seen as a battle between the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), there are some secondary factors at play. This is also being seen as a mini-Assembly election, and is expected to have major repercussions on the State government.
“The Sena looks like it is playing the game with an eye on the mid-term polls. If it wins the corporation, then it will probably withdraw from the State government and seek mid-term polls,” said Dr. Sudhakar Solomonraj, head of the political science department of Wilson College. As India’s richest municipal corporation goes to the polls this February 21, The Hindu looks at the likely permutations and combinations in the coming week, and how each party is likely to play the game.
Shiv Sena
In case the Sena does not manage to reach the 114 seats to get a majority in the 227-ward BMC, going back to an alliance with the BJP could be a problem, especially after the bad blood between them. “The language used by Uddhav Thackeray against the BJP was intemperate, reminiscent of his father. In this kind of situation, a Sena-BJP alliance looks difficult,” said Solomonraj.
The Sena has already prepared the ground for seeking the Congress’ help by praising Congress leaders and its earlier rule. “Uddhav may be soft on the Congress, but a Congress-Sena tie-up seems unlikely. Also, the Congress may not be sure to go with the communal tag that comes with it,” said Solomonraj. A tie-up with the Sena could also harm the Congress’ secular credentials in other states. The Sena could get a helping hand from the MNS, “in the interests of the Marathi manoos”. The Samajwadi Party could also help the Sena. “When Akhilesh Yadav was facing his father’s wrath in his party, Uddhav Thackeray offered him support in a statement that was appreciated by Akhilesh himself. Should the Sena be stuck for numbers in Mumbai, Akhilesh could send over his people to support it,” said political commentator Ajay Vaidya. Parties like the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad Muslimeen (AIMIM), that are expected to eat into the Muslim vote bank in the city, might not offer support to the saffron parties.
BJP
The stakes for this party are clearly the greatest. Its high-pitched campaign has made it difficult for other parties to close ranks with it. “The BJP has burnt its bridges with most other parties. Most parties may even gang up against the BJP. Apart from the few Republican Party of India seats, they don’t have many options left, unless they choose to go with the Sena,” said Mr. Vaidya.
The Congress will possibly not go with the BJP. “The Congress has been fighting the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and other states, and it could boomerang badly there,” said Mr. Vaidya. The NCP, which has refused to go with the BJP in the State, is a minor player in the BMC. Support from the Samajwadi Party is unlikely since “the SP is fighting the BJP in Uttar Pradesh,” said Mr. Vaidya. Also, the AIMIM would have issues going with the BJP. “The credibility of the AIMIM could take a beating if it offers support to the BJP,” said Mr. Solomonraj.
Congress
While their tally could improve, their chances of getting close to power look bleak. Joining hands with the BJP or even Shiv Sena could prove detrimental in the long run. “Also, (Sanjay) Nirupam (Mumbai Regional Congress Committee president) would be unacceptable to the Shiv Sena, which doesn’t like people who have left their party,” said Mr. Solomonraj.
Smaller players
The AIMIM could be a spoiler and may play a significant role in the post-poll scenario. Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray’s offer of alliance may have been rejected by the Shiv Sena before the elections, but if the Sena fails to muster decent numbers, the MNS could come in handy. Other smaller players in Mumbai like Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party have already declared their innings. Mr. Pawar says his party is not really strong in Mumbai; this admission comes on the eve of the polls, after the party has fielded 174 candidates in the city. Mr. Pawar has already put to rest speculation about his party supporting the BJP in the State, and he could join hands with Congress again. Independents could play a crucial role, and could hold the key to change power equations in the corporation, in case they win in huge numbers like they did the last time.
