Hard bargaining by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with the Shiv Sena, and the parties realising that they may not be able to repeat their performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha election in the State this time, were the key drivers for the alliance announced between the two on Monday.
According to sources from the BJP, the party managed to convince the Sena that it would emerge as at least the single-largest party after the polls, if not secure a majority. “The Sena was made to realise that losing eight or nine of its current 18 MPs would mean it would lose its bargaining power at the Centre,” a BJP leader and State minister aware of the negotiations said.
MNS-NCP conundrum
The increasing proximity between the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) also worked in the BJP’s favour. Though the NCP is in the Opposition front, it was NCP president Sharad Pawar whose unilateral support from the outside helped the BJP form the government in the State in 2014. “The Sena realised that the BJP does not consider either MNS or NCP ‘untouchable’, and this alliance winning more than 10 seats would weaken the Sena’s position further,” the source from the BJP said.
A number of Sena MPs, especially those from rural constituencies, have always been in favour of an alliance, especially after realising that they will not be able to match the resources of the possible BJP candidates.
For the BJP, an alliance means access to the Sena’s hardcore cadre and its fixed vote bank in the 25 constituencies it will be contesting.
When asked if the Sena has gained anything from the alliance, a party leader said, “We managed to waive property tax for houses up to 500 sq.ft. in Mumbai and Thane. It wouldn’t have been possible otherwise.”
For the Sena, however, the road to the Assembly polls remains rocky. Though it may claim to have gained a Lok Sabha seat in the arrangement between the allies, it has lost a few in the seat-sharing formula for the Assembly polls. Earlier, the Sena used to contest 171 of the 288 Assembly seats, and the BJP got 117. In 2014, when both parties fought independently, Sena contested all 280 seats. “As per Monday’s announcement, we will get at the most 140 Assembly seats, which will be a step back from our earlier position,” a Sena leader said.
