Though the number of COVID-19 cases being reported in the city has been hovering around the 2,000 mark every day, civic officials say a closer inspection of the data shows a drop in the growth rate of both, positive cases and active cases.
Positivity rate is defined as the percentage of people who test positive for the virus of those overall who have been tested. While active cases rate is the time of detection till the end of treatment or quarantine.
According to data shared by the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP), the moving average growth rate of active COVID-19 cases increased from June 27 to July 18, but started reducing after that. A similar trend was observed in the growth rate of active cases.
Epidemiologist Giridhara Babu said the number of positive cases, recovered cases, active cases, and deaths keep increasing. “To measure the efficacy of the actions taken, we take a seven-day or 30-day moving average. The advantage of taking a moving average is the base value, which has increased for the period it is factored. In the case of the city, when we look at the 30-day moving average, we can see a downward curve week-on-week,” he said.
The epidemic curve will show a plateau, however, with the growth rate showing a downward curve, it means that the containment measures are effective. “This is a positive sign. It shows that Bengaluru is trying to reclaim the path to the model it was known for earlier,” he added.
BBMP Commissioner N. Manjunath Prasad attributed the trend to early interventions, increased testing that helped detect cases, and isolating the positive cases, either under home quarantine, admission in COVID Care Centres or the designated hospitals. Early intervention had also helped bring down the number of fatalities.
Dr. Babu concurred and said that the BBMP which was initially testing around 9,000 people a day had ramped it up to 16,000 a day. That apart, with coordination issues with regard to admission in hospitals sorted out, the rate of fatalities had also decreased. “Increased awareness among citizens in seeking care sooner has also played a role,” he said and added that fatalities had reduced owing to earlier clinical management, including early provision of critical care and introduction of Tele-ICUs.
According to WHO, the positivity rate should be less than 10%. In Bengaluru, it is around 18%.
