In the 2011 assembly polls, the UDF had a close shave and a wafer-thin majority to boast, but Ernakulam district bucked the trend as the voters rallied behind the Congress and its allies, which conceded just three of the 14 constituencies — Perumbavoor, Angamaly and Vypeen — to the rival Left front.
Four new segments had come into being following delimitation and the UDF wrested them all.
The ones that were liquidated had sided with the CPI(M) in the 2006 assembly election. But the party and the Left front can rest assured that though the district is traditionally considered to be a pocket borough of the Congress and the Kerala Congress, in the eastern parts, the Left has won all segments at one time or the other.
There’s no overarching theme influencing the voters going to the polls.
The UDF, drawing confidence from the favourable byelection results in its term in the Assembly, harps on its pet theme of ‘continuity of government’ and swears that there’s no anti-incumbency at work.
“There’s a general sentiment that the government has done rather well. Despite the slew of troubles it faced and loads of muck flung at it, it has been able to deliver on the promises to a great extent. The corruption charges have not dented the government’s image. We have a Chief Minister, who works like a 24X7 coffee shop — transparent, open and accessible that has gone down well with the people. This is a State-wide feeling as we gauge it,” argues V.J. Paulose, DCC president, hopeful of wresting even the ones that voted for the Left in the 2011 polls.
The Left relies largely on the themes of corruption-free governance, secular values and in the wake of the Perumbavoor murder, on measures to ensure safety of women.
Its fervent, methodical campaigning in segments like Thripunithura, Kalamassery and Paravur (where V.D. Satheesan used to win crossover, goodwill votes) has taken the battle to the rival camp.
In Aluva, where it was thought that the UDF would have a cakewalk, is heading for a nail-biting finish.
The anti-corruption stance of Twenty20, which wields power in the Kizhakkambalam panchayat, would give the front a leg-up in Kunnathunad.
Even in constituencies like Ernakulam and Thrikkakara, the fight between the major fronts is getting tougher by the day.
“Constituencies like Piravom, Muvattupuzha and Kothamangalam will see the voters react strongly against the government’s apathy towards the plantation (read rubber) and agro-industrial sectors,” insists K. Chandran Pillai, CITU leader.
The sinking fortunes of industries that adversely impacted labour security will be a major issue for voters in the central part of the district, he thinks.
The BJP-BDJS combine is expected to improve its show in constituencies like Thripunithura, Paravur and Kothamangalam, but Thripunithura is probably the only segment in the district where the BDJS stance will impact the poll outcome.
In its nebulous pre-party avatar as a wing of the SNDP that supported the BJP in the local body polls, it failed to make much of an impact except in urban Thripunithura areas.
LDF relies on graft-free governance, secular values
UDF banks on continuity of rule, bypoll results
